Wednesday 10 October 2012

Rookie QB Power Rankings

At the outset of this NFL season, a record five teams named a rookie as their starting quarterback. Two of these decisions were obvious; Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were drafted number one and two overall to teams that were in desperate need of a starting QB.

The decisions to start the remaining three rookies ranged from moderately surprising to highly questionable. Russell Wilson was drafted 76th overall to a team that just spent $26 million on a sought-after but unproven free agent QB (Matt Flynn). Ryan Tannehill was named the starter in Miami, even though Matt Moore had relative success with the Dolphins in 2011. And in Cleveland, 28 year-old first rounder Brandon Weeden got the start over incumbent Colt McCoy, the winningest QB in NCAA history.

So how have these rookies fared in their brief careers, attempting to succeed in the most important position in North American pro sports? The Redshirt Freshmen will track these QBs during their inaugural season with the Rookie QB Power Rankings.



1. Robert Griffin III - Washington Redskins (2-3)
69.1 Comp. %, 1,161 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 101 QB Rtg., 241 rush yards, 4 TD


RGIII was injured on this hit in a Week 5 loss to Atlanta

RGIII exploded onto the NFL scene with a great all-around performance against the Saints in front of a raucous Superdome crowd. Griffin passed for 320 yards and 2 TDs on just 19 completions and ran for 48 yards. During the 'Skins next two games, Griffin produced a combined 583 yards and 5 TDs (3 rushing) in losing efforts. RGIII will need to protect the ball more (5 fumbles, 1 lost) to continue to have success, as well as protect himself. Griffin was rocked during a red-zone play this past Sunday against Atlanta, suffering a concussion. While his fearlessness on scrambles is exciting to watch, the Redskins invested a ton in this kid, and the only way he can produce is if he stays healthy.

2.  Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
54.2 Comp. %, 1,208 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 77.1 QB Rtg., 104 rush yards, 1 TD


Luck looks like he will be able to fill the massive void left by Peyton

Following the tumultuous departure of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck has brought hope back to Indy. Luck was taken 1st overall in the 2012 draft because he met all the criteria of a franchise quarterback; he has a big arm, size, poise in the pocket and tremendous leadership ability to go along with a great football mind. His first game as a Colt was a struggle, as he threw just 1 TD and three picks against a tough Bears defense in Chicago. Luck has failed to reach 300 yards passing just once this season, in a Week 2 win over the Vikings where he engineered a 45 yard drive to set up a game-winning field goal with 12 seconds left. Perhaps his most impressive performance, however, was last week's upset victory over the Packers. Luck threw for 362 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT, as well as 24 yards and a TD on the ground in an emotional home win after receiving news of Chuck Pagano's leukemia diagnosis. Luck is the best true QB in this group of rookies, but is not quite the all-around threat that RGIII currently is.


3. Ryan Tannehill - Miami Dolphins (2-3)
57.4 Comp. %, 1,269 yards, 2 TD, 6 INT, 70.4 QB Rtg., 9 rush yards, 1 TD


Tannehill has had success this season despite mediocre stats

Sure, Tannehill's statistics don't leap off the page. Sure, he didn't know anything about NFL divisions months after being drafted. Sure, searching "Ryan Tannehill" in Google Images produces almost as many pictures of his wife as it does the rookie QB. Say what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but he's actually had a decent season thus far. Half of Tannehill's interceptions came in his first game as a pro against the now 5-0 Houston Texans, who boast a downright scary defence. In fact, Miami's three losses have come against teams with a combined record of 11-4. Of course you'd like to see more TD passes, but Miami isn't exactly a haven for talented WRs. Tannehill's best game thus far was arguably a Week 4 loss to the Cardinals, a game that easily could've gone either way. The former Aggie threw for 431 yards on 41 attempts against the talented Arizona D, which makes him the only QB on this list to have eclipsed the 400-yard mark.


4. Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
63.2 Comp. %, 815 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT, 75.2 QB Rtg., 92 rush yards

Wilson gained the starting job over FA QB Matt Flynn

Russell Wilson's first season will likely be remembered by the last-second hail mary pass to Golden Tate which controversially beat the Packers in Week 3 and all but ended the replacement referee fiasco. Wilson is an undersized QB with decent mobility whose main job is to manage the offense of a rush-heavy Seattle attack. The Seahawks have run the ball 172 times (27 by Wilson) compared to 125 pass attempts. Wilson's game management hasn't been at its best recently, however, as he's thrown 5 INTs to just 1 TD in his past two games. The rookie's best game was his Week 2 win over the Cowboys where he completed 15 of 20 passes, throwing for 151 yards and a TD. These statistics won't blow anybody away, but the lack of turnovers is crucial to a team who has a ground-and-pound mentality designed around Marshawn Lynch to go along with the league's best defence.

5. Brandon Weeden - Cleveland Browns (0-5)
55.4 Comp. %, 1,288 yards, 5 TD, 9 INT, 64.5 QB Rtg., 33 rush yards


Weeden has trouble avoiding giant American flags, let alone interceptions

For those of you who have watched the Browns at all this year, this ranking probably comes as no surprise. Due to his minor league baseball career as a relief pitcher, Weeden started only one season at Oklahoma State and enters the NFL at the age of 28. Some thought this would benefit Weeden with greater maturity than other younger rookie QBs. This has not been the case. Weeden has looked lost for most of the first 5 weeks of the season, especially in a Week 1 loss to Philly where he completed just 12 of 35 passes for 118 yards and 4 INTs. And that has proven to be the Browns' best chance of winning a game this season. To be fair, Weeden has few talented options to throw to and has faced mostly tough opponents in his first five starts. Also, he has displayed the kind of field-stretching arm he had so much success with back in OSU. But the Browns need more than just a rocket arm; they need someone who can limit turnovers and complete passes when Trent Richardson gets tired.


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