I've got this weird feeling that this one will be close, even though Denver is the better team in almost every way. Close or not, the Broncos should win this one and advance to the AFC Championship.
Peyton Manning, it turns out, is really quite good. Who'd have thought? Manning has transformed the Broncos into one of the most explosive teams in the league on offense and he should be able to tear up a poor Ravens secondary. The running game will add a bit, but to me this game comes down to Denver's passing attack. I'm thinking 70-ish yards for Knowshon Moreno as the lead rusher, and over 300 for Manning.
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What really impressed me about the Broncos late in the season though is the defense. Obviously Von Miller can rush the passer, but it's more than that. Champ Bailey and the secondary have held up all year and managed to limit almost every passing attack they've faced, the linebacking corps repeatedly shut down opposing running backs and as a team, Denver allowed only 18.1 points per-game. By week 17 the Broncos D was easily one of the best in the league.
On the other side, we've got a Ravens squad that isn't particularly great at anything. They managed to beat the Colts at home last weekend, but was anyone really that impressed by Baltimore? Anyone? Ray Rice is obviously a great player, but Joe Flacco is a tough pill to swallow at quarterback, and the defense is a far cry from their reputation. Really, this game pits a great team (Denver) against a team that is just ok (Baltimore).
As I said, I think this one will be close for some reason. Regardless, the Broncos are the much better team, and should take it.
The Call: Denver wins 31-24
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Last time these teams met, the Patriots had an obvious defensive game-plan: shut down Arian Foster, and let Matt Schaub and the passing attack try to beat us. It was super successful. The Texans seem to be one of those teams that are done once they get down 2 or 3 scores. They are not a team that want to spread out on offense. They are not a team that can put points on the board in a hurry. And that will likely be the problem in this one. The Patriots are sure to score a ton, and I don't think the Texans can match them score-for-score.
Obviously, Tom Brady will get all the headlines leading up to this game. The Golden Boy is an all-time great, and will throw a couple touchdowns without doubt. But what makes this Patriots team special is their rushing attack. Led by Stevan Ridley (but spreading out touches amongst several backs), the Patriots topped 2000 yard rushing as a team for the first time since 2008, finishing the season as a top-10 rushing team. They scored 25 touchdowns on the ground this season as well, a total that led the league. While Brady will sling it around, the backs will do damage too.
The Patriots offense is nearly unstoppable, and the defense—especially against the run—dramatically improved late in the season. I expect the Pats to put up a couple early touchdowns, and never look back.
The Call: New England wins 34-17
RSFreshmen playoff record: 4-0
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