Baltimore Orioles (30-24; 2nd)
MVP: Adam Jones
The Orioles’ surprising start owes a
lot to their pitching staff, which currently sports the 4th
lowest team ERA in the American League. Why give the MVP to Jones
then? In short, because he is the only regular player putting up
consistent numbers. While the Orioles as a team rank near the middle
of the AL in almost every offensive statistic (home runs aside),
Jones is playing the best baseball of his career. Jones currently
leads the team in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, batting average and
on-base percentage. Clearly, that contract extension was
well-deserved.
Best Case Scenario:
Jones maintains his career year, while
Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy, and Matt Weiters all round in to form.
Meanwhile their bullpen, anchored by Pedro Strop, Darren O’Day and
closer Jim Johnson, continues to be one of the best in the majors.
With the offense clicking, and the bullpen closing out late-inning
situations, the Orioles patchwork rotation isn’t under too much
pressure.
Worst Case Scenario:
Jones—and the rest of the team—return
to their career norms, while the rest of the AL East rounds in to
form, and takes turns beating up on the Orioles. This Orioles team
has overachieved so far, making this scenario the most likely. Look
for the O’s to fall off a bit in the second third of the season.
Boston Red Sox (28-26; 4th)
MVP: David Ortiz
While Red Sox fans are surely
disappointed to this point of the season, Ortiz has been a definite
bright spot. Like Adam Jones in Baltimore, Ortiz leads his teams’
offense in most significant categories (runs, home runs, slugging,
average, RBIs…). This pick came down to Ortiz and Felix Doubront,
who has been the most consistent starter in an otherwise
underwhelming rotation. The fact that Doubront was even in the
discussion points to how frustrating the Red Sox season has been thus
far.
Best Case Scenario:
Health is the big thing for the Red Sox
heading into the second third of the season. Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin
Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and of course Carl Crawford have all missed
time. If Boston can get everyone healthy, this lineup becomes one of
the deepest in the AL East. With this, the Red Sox need consistent
pitching from their rotation, which has been disappointing so far.
Worst Case Scenario:
The pitching continues to struggle, and
begins to dip into beer and fried chicken again, sabotaging the
season. Marlon Byrd and Daniel Nava continue to get at-bats as the
BoSox regulars can’t get healthy, and the team slowly fades.
Bottom Line:
It really does come down to health. If
they’re healthy, there’s no way they continue to struggle.
New York Yankees (29-24; 3rd)
MVP: Derek Jeter
Once again, the Yankees’ are keeping
pace with the rest of the AL thanks in large part to their offense.
The difference, though, is that Derek Jeter—a notorious
slow-starter—has come out of the gate blazing. He is hitting for
average, getting on base, and even hitting for a little power, all
while swiping 5 bags. If this continues, the big bats behind Jeter in
the lineup should have plenty of RBI opportunities the rest of the
season.
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| Number 2 has his Yanks in the thick of the AL East race |
Best Case Scenario:
Like most years, the Yanks’ success
this season will depend on their pitching. While Rafael Soriano has
done a great job filling in for the injured Mariano Rivera, the
rotation (which was supposed to be much-improved heading into the
season) has been underwhelming. In this scenario, Phil Hughes and
Ivan Nova rebound as we head into the summer, while Hiroki Kuroda and
CC Sabathia gain consistency. The offense continues to roll.
Worst Case Scenario:
Hughes and Nova continue to give
Yankees’ fans heart palpitations every five days, while the aging
lineup begins to break down. Tampa Bay runs away with the division,
while Boston gets healthy and makes a mid-summer push.
Bottom Line:
The Yankees should keep pace in the AL
East, and make for an interesting race with Tampa Bay, and Boston.
Tampa Bay Rays
MVP: Fernando Rodney
Tampa leads the AL in team ERA. With
that, consideration for this pick was given to David Price, the (now)
undisputed ace of the staff. However, it is Rodney who has surprised
to most. Seizing the closer role with Kyle Farnsworth hurt, Rodney
has saved 17 games (in 18 opportunities), with sparkling numbers
(1.03 ERA, 25:4 K/BB ratio, while holding opponents to a .172 batting
average). Once thought too inconsistent to close games, Rodney has
bounced back in a big way.
Best Case Scenario:
The pitching continues to be top-notch.
The generally anemic offense picks it up in early summer (we’re
talking about you Ben Zobrist). Perhaps most importantly, the
surprisingly bad defense (currently ranking second-last in the AL)
also improves.
Worst Case Scenario:
While the pitching maintains (let’s
be honest its not going anywhere), the Rays just can’t score enough
runs to beat the slugging Yanks and Sox. The defense continues to
underwhelm, and the Rays slip into the middle of the division.
Bottom Line:
The Rays defense is not this bad.
They’ve never blown people away with their offensive numbers, so as
long as the pitching continues to be good, and the defense steadily
improves, they will be really good.
Toronto Blue Jays
MVP: Edwin Encarnacion
A player for the Jays who recently
patrolled the hot corner, is currently pacing them offensively,
leading the team in home runs and RBI. Gotta be Jose Bautista, right?
Wrong. Edwin Encarnacion has been the most consistent offensive
player for the Jays this year, splitting time between DH and first
base. If he can maintain this pace to some degree, he will be an
amazing find for the Jays, a big bat that came out of nowhere.
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Best Case Scenario:
Bautista starts playing like the
Bautista of the last couple years, Encarnacion continues to be a
power bat, Colby Rasmus ups his average, and Brett Lawrie starts
hitting for a little more power. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow
anchor the rotation, while arms like Drew Hutchison and Henderson
Alvarez continue to pitch well enough to keep them in games.
Worst Case Scenario:
The bullpen continues to blow late
leads, Bautista regresses to his 2004-2009 levels, and the rest of
the kids don’t develop. This team relies a lot on youth, and if the
young guys stall on their development, the team is in trouble.
Bottom Line:
This team is one of the toughest to
project, since they rely so much on upside. While Bautista could very
well regress a little, at least some of the young kids should pan
out. Either way, they probably don’t have quite enough to keep up
with the big boys in the AL East this year.
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