MLB First Third Review - NL Central

Chicago Cubs


MVP: Ryan Dempster


Dempster didn't get his first victory until June 5, which was in almost every case due to his team's horrific offence. With an excellent ERA (2.11) and WHIP (1.02), along with an opponent's batting average of 2.04, it's quite clear why Dempster is rumoured to be on the move to a contender before the deadline.

Best Case Scenario:

At this point, the Cubs are hoping that Alfonso Soriano and Dempster continue to put up solid numbers, thus boosting their trade value. Theo Epstein would surely see this season as a success if he could move these two productive veterans for some prospects to help Starlin Castro and Jeff Samardzija create a bright future on the North Side.

Worst Case Scenario:

The Cubs continue to pile on the L's, youngster Starlin Castro's average dips well under .300, and Soriano and Dempster hurt their team's future by stinking it up before the trade deadline.

Bottom Line:

The Cubs are looking to the future this year, which is probably getting old to the fans at the Friendly Confines.

Cincinnati Reds

MVP: Joey Votto

The former MVP has his team atop the division despite reduced power numbers

Votto leads the Majors with a .480 OBP and is near the top in batting average. While the Canadian slugger's power numbers are down, Votto is still the anchor of the Reds' offence and he will be relied upon down the stretch if the Reds are to make another push into October baseball.

Best Case Scenario:

The Reds hurlers continue to pitch well (3.53 ERA) while Votto finds his home run stroke. Jay Bruce proceeds to provide great power numbers while Brandon Phillips continues to top his career batting average while keeping up the flashy play at second.

Worst Case Scenario:

Cincy's young rotation struggles down the stretch while Bruce's average hovers around 2.10. Votto struggles to keep up his average or provide RBI with no protection from Bruce.

Bottom Line:

With the Pirates and Cardinals nipping at their heels, the Reds will need to play solid ball for the rest of the season if they are to win their division. Otherwise, they looked primed for another playoff run.

Houston Astros

MVP: Jed Lowrie

The newcomer leads his 'Stros in home runs and OBP, while providing stability at short.

Best Case Scenario:

Houston improves on its awful road record (9-25) while continuing to play well in front of their own fans. Even in the most bold of predictions the Astros still miss out on a wildcard spot, since Milwaukee, St. Louis and Pittsburgh stand between them and the division leaders, the Reds.

Worst Case Scenario:

Houston's ace Wandy Rodriguez begins to struggle while Lowrie, Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez fail to score runs consistently, causing the 'Stros to play as poorly in Houston as they have on the road.

Bottom Line:

Houston has some pieces that may work out for them in their future, but will need to change the complexion of their roster to compete in the American League next year.

Milwaukee Brewers

MVP: Ryan Braun

Braun has been tearing it up this season, possibly because he feels like he's playing on borrowed time. Instead of serving a lengthy suspension for a failed drug test after his MVP season, Braun has hit 20 home runs with a tremendous triple slash line of .314/.394/.602.

Best Case Scenario:

The Brewers pitching staff improves while Aramis Ramirez continues to display his best Prince Fielder impression. Jonathan Lucroy comes off the DL without rust and keeps his average in the mid-.300s.

Worst Case Scenario:

Ryan Braun proves to be the only reliable hitter in the lineup and the Brewers' starters have a mid-season meltdown, raising their ERA beyond their current mark of 4.19.

Bottom Line:

It will be tough to compete for the division, especially if the Pirates are for real. The Brew Crew will be in the thick of the race for the additional wildcard spot, however.

Pittsburgh Pirates

MVP: Rotation

If anyone told me that A.J. Burnett would be part of one of the best, most consistent pitching staffs in the Majors, I would ask you if it was 2003. It's not, but the Pirates have assembled and efficient group that have a combined ERA of 3.40 (3^rd in the Majors) and are led in victories by the reinvented Burnett, with 8.

Best Case Scenario:

The Pirates remain near or at the top of the NL Central and finish with a winning record for the first time in twenty years. Making a serious playoff push would be a lot to ask of this club, so a wildcard berth would be a lofty but attainable goal.

Worst Case Scenario:

The Bucs' staff starts to falter and Andrew McCutcheon cools off. Pittsburgh's home record starts to look more like their road record (15-21) and the team falls below .500 to prolong the streak.

Bottom Line:

Pittsburgh have been one of the most surprising teams of the season, and after two decades of futility, it would be great to see them finally play meaningful baseball down the stretch.

St. Louis Cardinals

MVP: Lance Lynn

A promising youngster, not many could have predicted the strong start Lynn has had this season. He is one of just five pitchers to win 10 or more games on the year, and has emerged as the Cardinals' ace with Chris Carpenter on the DL.

Lance Lynn has delivered a jaw-dropping first third.

Best Case Scenario:

The Cards get a boost when Carpenter finally returns, while David Freese, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran continue to make St. Louis fans forget about Mr. Pujols.

Worst Case Scenario:

Starters Wainwright, Lohse and Lynn tail off while Carpenter is ineffective upon his return from injury. The sluggers can't keep pace while the Cards become the victims of a top-heavy division.

Bottom Line:

The Cardinals are primed to make another run this postseason, as they will likely make it by way of the wildcard if they don't beat out the Reds for the division.