Forget the Lakers. Forget the Jazz. The battle for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West really isn't that interesting. Both teams are flawed after all, and neither team is really a threat to win the title. Instead, focus on the best playoff race currently going: the 3-team battle for the 3rd seed in the Western Conference. Whoever wins this battle will start the playoffs at home, likely against a reeling Golden State team or a defensively questionable Houston squad; whoever loses will start the playoffs on the road against a really good Memphis, Denver or Los Angeles Clippers team. This is where the action is in the NBA right now, so get into it.
Let's break the 3 teams down.
Denver Nuggets (47-22)
If it wasn't for that damn team in Miami, a lot more people would be talking about the Nuggets right now. They're currently on a 13-game winning streak, and play perhaps the most entertaining style of ball in the league. As has been the case over the last few years, the biggest complaint against this Denver team is that they don't have a go-to scorer, instead preferring to ride the hot hand and score by committee. That could be a problem come playoff time (when defenses tighten up a lot), but lucky for Denver, the battle they're currently in is all about the regular season.
Denver needs the 3-seed the most, I think. They are a league-best 30-3 at home this season (you read that right), and 8 of their remaining 13 games will be played in Denver. Also, they're the only team in this race with a road record under .500 (17-19), so they should be going all out for a top seed. They have been dogged for playing great in the regular season, and then choking in the playoffs over the last couple years. If they get a 3-seed and home-court advantage in the first-round, I'd bet they at least win a series... if not more.
Because it matters most to them, and because they play 8 more home games this year, I'm picking the Nuggets to finish the season as the 3-seed in the Western Conference.
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Los Angeles Clippers (46-22)
The clippers just haven't been that great lately. After a hot start to the season, they're only 3-games over .500 since February 1, with losses to each of the other Western Conference powers in that stretch (1 loss to each of Memphis, Denver, Oklahoma City and San Antonio). I'm sticking by my prediction that this team will not make the Western Conference finals.
L.A. is good, but they aren't great. Chris Paul is probably the best point guard in the league, but Blake Griffin just hasn't developed into a reliable low-post scorer yet. They have a deep bench, sure, but the Griffin-conundrum (as I just now named it) could really hurt them down the stretch. The Clippers still have a bunch of playoff teams left on their schedule, and because some of them (Houston, the Lakers, Memphis) will be trying to improve their seeding at the time, you can expect a playoff atmosphere in these games. That means the D will tighten up, which means Griffin's lack of a reliable post-up game could become a glaring weakness for the Clips.
Los Angeles, as a likely division winner, is guaranteed a top-4 seed. So even if they struggle, they will end up with a home playoff series. Just expect it to be the 4 vs. 5 series... these guys won't end up in the top-3.
Memphis Grizzlies (45-21)
I consider the Grizzlies the opposite of the Nuggets. While Denver is built for the regular season and has their playoff pedigree constantly questioned, Memphis could finish 5th in the West and reasonably still make the Conference Finals. They're big, they're tough and they defend really well. That spells playoff success.
Despite that, I think they'll finish with the 5th seed. Only 7 of their remaining 16 games are at home, and while they don't have the toughest of schedules remaining, the 3 seed really is the Nuggets' to lose at this point. I love this Grizzlies team now that they run everything through Marc Gasol at the high post, and think they are a great darkhorse Championship team, but I just don't see them catching Denver with how well the Nuggets are playing right now.
Really good analysis that reminds me of how different the West teams are (good at home, or tough defense, or balanced attack) which is also why I like to watch the West teams play; they have their own personalities. So assuming that Miami wins the East, when can we expect the next analysis of which West team will match up best with them?
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