Week 4 Forecaster

A lot of attention this week is being given to two franchises experiencing an exciting—and well deserved—resurgence: The Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions. The fanbases of both of these teams have endured long enough, and while I could easily write a full article on these teams, it would just be paying lip-service to a hot topic which has been documented elsewhere. Instead, I'm going to focus on a team that had relatively high expectations, and have looked terrible thus far: the St. Louis Rams.

The NFC West stinks. We all know that, and yet some team still has to win the division and make the playoffs. For me, the smart money heading into the season was the Rams. Literally, I have a futures bet on them making the playoffs. With a young up-and-coming quarterback, an established run game, a new offensive co-ordinator of a reputable background, and an improving defense, what was not to like? Surely they could muster up 7 wins, and take the division... right?

Well, so far they have looked like the weakest team in the weakest division. Their quarterback play seems to have regressed, running back Stephen Jackson can't stay on the field, and their defense is having a tough time stopping anybody, as they stand as the second-worst defense through 3 weeks.

The Rams remain the only winless team in the NFC West through three weeks, and face an above-average Redskins team coming off a tough loss. While neither of these teams have shown that they will be a force this year, the Redskins have at least been competitive in games.

Rams fans, and scorned betters alike, can hope that St Louis' struggles this year can be attributed to a brutal early-schedule. But until they show the ability to put a solid 4 quarters together, stay away from putting any money on them.

New Orleans (-7 1/2) @ Jacksonville

Statistically, the Jags currently have one of the top defenses and one of the best running-games in the league. While impressive, neither of those phases of the game necessarily equal points. And in a game against the Saints, you have to put touchdowns on the scoreboard. Expect New Orleans to continue to stretch the field offensively, while sending a ton of blitzes at rookie QB Blaine Gabbert on the defensive end. These two features of the Saints' game plan—in addition to the fact that they are simply a better team—should result in a double-digit win for New Orleans.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-9)

I am one of the many NFL fans who resented the whole “Dream Team” analogy bestowed upon the Eagles. So, naturally, the fact that they are struggling brings me joy. Struggles aside, though, this is a solid team. The 49ers are not. With Vick playing, a home game, and the refs looking out for roughing-the-quarterback penalties (thanks for pointing that out Mike) I can't see this being a close game. While it has become clear that the Eagles linebackers struggle in coverage, the 49ers Alex Smith is not the type to be able to take advantage of this and swing the game. Go with the Eagles.

Denver @ Green Bay (-13)

Denver has been in three close games this season, winning by 2 against the Bengals and losing their other two games by a field goal. Green Bay's three wins have been by at least 7 points. Expect Denver's offensive woes to continue (76 rushing yards/game, 210.3 passing yards/game) against Green Bay. Even though the Packers' D is struggling against the pass (395 passing yards allowed/game), Kyle Orton won't be able to match what Aaron Rodgers will be putting up when the Packers have the ball. Plus, Denver is 4-0-1 all-time at Lambeau. Pick Green Bay to win big.

Pittsburgh (+4) @ Houston

Houston lost a tough one in New Orleans last week in a game that saw the Texans squander four red-zone opportunities. They now must face the best defensive team they've played all year as they come home to the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a hard-fought win in Indy, and they should be looking to bounce back from that weak performance. Expect the Steelers to keep it close with their defense and big plays from Ben Roethlisberger and his talented receivers, who are going against a Texans defense whose secondary was exposed last week. Pick Pittsburgh to keep it close in Houston.

New England (-6 1/2) @ Oakland

Oakland is coming off a big win against the Jets, and will now face their third straight AFC East opponent in the Patriots. Although they are at home, the Raiders will be hard-pressed to win again this week against another tough team. While Darren McFadden is coming off a career-high 171 yards against a supposedly elite defense, and is now facing a shaky Patriots defensive unit, I think Tom Brady and Co. will be able to overpower and outscore the Raiders. Brady had an uncharacteristically poor showing in Buffalo last weekend that saw him throw as many interceptions as he did all of last year (four). I expect him to bounce back in a big way. Plus, the Patriots have only lost back-to-back regular season games twice under Brady dating back to 2003. Take the Pats.