NFC Divisional Round Preview

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers - Saturday 8:00 PM

The QB Battle: The Biggest 49ers Story This Season
(AP)

For my money, this is the game of the weekend. While technically a rematch of a Week 1 affair (which the 49ers won 30-22), in reality both teams are vastly different than the teams that squared off in on September 9.

The biggest difference for San Fran—of course—is at quarterback. Alex Smith started for the 9ers in Week 1, but handed the reigns to Colin Kaepernick mid-season (had the reigns wrestled away from him?) and the team hasn't looked back since. By now you know the differences between Smith and Kaepernick, but let's list them here anyway: Kaepernick is more mobile than Smith, has a bigger arm than Smith and takes more shots downfield than did Smith. It was highly debated for weeks, but the change at QB has made the 49ers offense more explosive.

Let's be real here, though. No matter who plays under center for San Francisco, this team is all about defense. They are undoubtedly the most physical defensive unit in the league, and were in the top-3 both in terms of total yards allowed, and points allowed. From the line through the secondary, these dudes can flat out play. Even better for the 49ers, defensive tackle Justin Smith is expected to play in this one. Smith is essential to the defense, calling stunts and opening up holes for the San Fran pass rushers (notice how Aldon Smith's production steeply declined when Justin Smith was out?). The D can keep San Francisco in almost any game, and will manage keep this one close.

But the 49ers will lose this game, and here's why: Aaron Rodgers. Now I'm not the biggest Rodgers fan in the world, but this guy is playing out of his mind right now, and the Packers offense is thriving as a result. It also helps that this is the healthiest the Packers have been all season. While the San Fran defense is one of the finest in the league, they are not immune to giving up points either. Remember the San Fran/ New England game? When Tom Brady tore apart the 49ers on multiple drives, and almost single handedly brought his team back from a big deficit? Expect a couple similar drives from the Pack on Saturday.

I'm personally excited for this game because it's a chance to test out a theory of mine. Over the last few seasons, I've developed the thinking that any championship team in this era needs an explosive offense that can spread out to a 4-wide receiver set, and fling it around for prolonged stretches. The Packers are that team, and the 9ers—even with Kaepernick—are not. With the Saints, Packers and Giants all having won recent Super Bowls, I'm starting to think this whole "Wide Open Offense"-thing is real in the NFL today. And for that reason, I fully expect the Packers to win this one on the road.

The Call: Packers win 27-20

Getty Images

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday 1:00 PM

Full disclosure here: A) I have been a huge Russell Wilson fan since before the season started (see prediction 3, ignore the other ones...); B) I am a huge Saints fan, and thus HATE the Falcons. So, naturally, I'm picking the Seahawks to take this game, though I have some legitimate reasons as well.

Bluntly, I just don't think the Falcons are that good. Defensively, they are nothing special and rank in the bottom-10 in terms of total yards allowed. So they're nothing spectacular on that side of the ball. Offensively, they have a ton of weapons, and ranked in the top-10 in total yardage, but are far from being a juggernaut. By the end of the season, the Falcons O ranked in between the Texans and the Buccaneers—not exactly record-setting offenses there.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a roll. You've heard a lot about Wilson over the last couple weeks but in reality the offense is all about Marshawn Lynch and the running game. One of the most violent runners in the league, Lynch has bowled over every defense he has faced so far and is sure to get his on Sunday. The Falcons have really struggled against the read-option this year. For example, in two games against the option-heavy Panthers this season, the Falcons allowed Cam Newton to throw for 502 yards (with 4 touchdowns and no picks) while allowing 394 yards on the ground as well. That's not good. Expect Wilson to exploit this, and for the Seahawks to run a lot of option plays—to big-time success.

These two will option the Falcons to death
(Kevin Casey)

Defensively, the Seahawks are easily the better team. They have 2 of the best, most physical corners in the game, a ball-hawk of a safety and an extremely physical line. In other words, it won't be easy for the Falcons to do anything against the 'Hawks. Seattle will be missing top pass-rusher Chris Clemons in this one, which will hurt a little bit, but I still expect the D to play at a high level.

Ultimately, I just don't think Atlanta is that good, while Seattle is one of the hottest teams in the league. Expect the Seahawks to run a lot of option plays, while shutting down Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense.

The Call: Seahawks win 23-14

RSFreshmen playoff record: 4-0