Monday, 3 October 2011

2011-12 NHL Preview - Northwest Division


Calgary Flames

The Flames finished second in the relatively weak Northwest division and tenth in the Western conference, 3 points out of a playoff spot. Calgary scored 250 goals last year which was fifth-best in the league, and has an elite goalie in Mikka Kiprusoff. However, expect this team with ageing stars to have a tough time fighting for a playoff spot.

Iginla will need some help if the Flames want to make the playoffs


Captain Jerome Iginla had a fantastic 2010-11 campaign scoring 43 goals (3rd in the NHL) and 86 points (6th). Iginla's amazing year was not enough to get Calgary into the postseason however, mainly because of the weak performances by his supporting cast. The Flames' next best scorer was Olli Jokinen (54 points), followed by Rene Bourque (50). The Flames were more balanced offensively in their last playoff season (2008-09) when Iginla put up 89 points and was followed closely by then-teammate Mike Cammalleri with 82.

Defensively, the Flames are fairly talented. Jay Bouwmeester and Mark Giordano will carry the bulk of the load, while mid-season acquisition Anton Babchuk should make Calgary's defensive unit solid with the ability to provide offense. Robyn Regehr's absence will be somewhat alleviated by the free agent signing of Scott Hannan. These four blueliners will look to help Mikka Kiprusoff repeat his 2010-11 season, when he finished with a 2.63 GAA and 37 wins, tied for second in the league.

Calgary's problem is that they rely too much on their home-ice advantage. The Flames outscored opponents by 20 goals at the Saddledome last year, while getting outscored on the road by 9. This discrepancy is one of the reasons the Flames missed the playoffs last year. If Calgary can get better secondary scoring to help out Iginla and play close to as good on the road as they do at home, the Flames might find themselves as one of the lower playoff seeds in the Western conference.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche finished 14th in the Western conference and second-last in the NHL in 2010-11. This team is clearly in rebuilding mode, and doesn't look to factor into the playoff race anytime soon.

Matt Duchene had a stellar year for the Avalanche (27G, 40A) and is clearly the future of this franchise. Paul Statsny (22G, 35A) and Milan Hejduk (22G, 34A) also had good seasons as Colorado's next-best offensive threats. Youngster David Jones had a solid scoring year as he notched 27 goals in 77 games, and will be a key to Colorado's future success.

Defensively, the Avalanche struggled last year allowing a league-worst 288 goals, 19 goals more than the next team. The addition of Erik Johnson from St. Louis should help in this regard, but only so much. The Avalanche lost offensive-defenseman John-Michael Liles to free agency, who put up 46 points (6G, 40A) last year. Colorado's other notable defenders include Shane O'Brien, Ryan O'Byrne, Kyle Quincey and Jan Hejda. Only Quincey has played an entire season with the Avalanche, meaning this unit may need some time to find chemistry. Newcomers Jean-Sebastien and Semyon Varlamov will be expected to provide some stability between the pipes this year for Colorado, but will be in tough with the young group of defensemen they have in front of them.

While Colorado's power-play unit was successful last year (18.5%, 11th in the league), their penalty-kill was atrocious, killing a league-worst 76.1%. Jay McClement, the second piece of the Erik Johnson trade, is an excellent penalty-killer and will likely see plenty of time with this unit. While Colorado has several pieces in place, they will likely need two or three more offseasons to accumulate enough talent to make a playoff push.

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton was the worst team last season, finishing with a record of 25-45-12. Now with two consecutive first-overall picks, the Oilers have the potential to be a serious contender within a few years.

2010 first-overall pick Taylor Hall had a promising start to his NHL career. The 20 year-old scored 22 goals and 20 assists in 65 games with the Oilers last year. Jordan Eberle led the team with 43 points (18G, 25A) and was followed closely by Hall, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky with 42. The offense will need to improve from last year where Edmonton's goal differential was a league-worst -76, 16 behind the nearest team. Returning home is Oiler great Ryan Smyth, who played ten full years with Edmonton before being traded to the Islanders during the 2006-07 season. Smyth's impact may be more sentimental than anything, however, as the ageing winger's point totals have been on the decline since leaving the Oilers. Look for Smyth, along with gritty forwards Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Jones and newcomer Ben Eager to at least make things difficult for opposing teams.

Edmonton has some talented veterans on defense, starting with Ryan Whitney and Tom Gilbert. Whitney started the 2010-11 season well with 27 points in 35 games before being sidelined for the rest of the year with an ankle injury. Cam Barker and Ladislav Smid are also solid D-men that will look to take some of the load off goaltenders Nikolai Khabibulin and Devan Dubnyk, who faced the tenth-most shots per game last season with 31.7.
2011 1st overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

The Oilers have loaded up on young talent with the likes of Hall, Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, and most recently Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nugent-Hopkins is currently making his case to stay in Edmonton for the season, but the 18 year-old will most likely be sent back to the WHL's Red Deer Rebels for another year of junior hockey. While the Oilers may find themselves near the bottom of the Western conference again this year, they are clearly in a rebuilding phase that should payoff in the not-so distant future.

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild finished last season in 12th place in the Western conference and 3rd in the Northwest division. With some major shakeups, look for Minnesota to be a more offensively talented team while still playing their trademark defensive-minded game.

Last year the Wild struggled on offense, finishing 26th in goals for with 206. General Manager Chuck Fletcher addressed this issue during the offseason by acquiring Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi from San Jose in separate deals. The former Sharks should bring some offensive firepower to a team that has lacked it since the days of Marian Gaborik. With these additions, Minnesota's captain Mikko Koivu should have a more productive year than his 2010-11 season where he put up a solid 17 goals and 41 assists in 71 games.

Former Sharks Setoguchi and Heatley should improve the Wild's offense

Minnesota traded away Brent Burns to acquire Setoguchi, a move which will force the Wild to play better team defense as he was the team's best defensemen. Marek Zidlicky is now the man for the Wild on the blueline, but should get help from Greg Zanon, Nick Schultz and youngster Jared Spurgeon. Niklas Backstrom is one of the league's best goalies, as he put up a 2.66 GAA and a .916 save percentage last year in 51 games. Backstrom will be integral to the success of the Wild's defensive game and ultimately their playoff hopes.

Last season Minnesota finished 26th with an even-strength goals for/against ratio of .85, meaning they allowed 15% more goals than they scored 5-on-5. The addition of Healtley and Setoguchi should help the Wild score more goals both 5-on-5 and on the powerplay, but with a weaker defensive unit than last year look for Minnesota to continue to allow more goals than they can put up. This should mean another year without a postseason appearance for the Wild.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks were the best team in the 2010-11 regular season, as the President's trophy winners scored the most goals and allowed the fewest, amassing a whopping +77 goal differential. Vancouver continued it's recent history of playoff disappointment however, losing out to the Bruins in game 7 of the Finals.

The Canucks' stellar year was made possible by the MVP season from the league's top point-getter Daniel Sedin. Daniel and brother Henrik combined for 198 points last season to lead Vancouver's potent offense. Ryan Kesler had a break-out year as the two-way forward scored 41 goals and 32 assists. Kesler followed up his terrific regular season by being Vancouver's best player in the postseason. These three will put up big years again this season and will help the Canucks' contend for another President's trophy.

Ryan Kesler is Vancouver's most complete player

Vancouver's defense is a balanced and deep unit. Kevin Bieksa (+32) and Dan Hamhuis (+29) are the Canucks' best pure defensemen, while Alexander Edler (8G, 25A) provides Vancouver with offensive output from the blueline. The Canucks will miss the services of Christian Erhoff this year who was traded just before free-agency to the Sabres. Erhoff had an outstanding year in 2010-11 as he scored 14 goals and added 36 assists. The talented defensive unit that remains should make life easy for one of the best regular season goalies in the league, Roberto Luongo. Luongo had a league-best 38 wins (tied with Carey Price), a 2.11 GAA (2nd), and a 9.28 save percentage (4th) last year. Look for Luongo to put up great numbers again this season.

Vancouver is one of the, if not the most talented team in the league. The Canucks' have skill and depth and every position, which should see them to the top of the Western conference again this season. This, however, is not enough to satisfy Canuck fans. It is quite clear that it's Stanley Cup or bust for this Vancouver team.

Predicted division standings:

1. Vancouver
2. Calgary
3. Minnesota
4. Edmonton
5. Columbus

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