"Let's Hope the Kids Can Play": The Raptors at the Halfway Point

As a sports fan, is there any worse position for your team to be in than no man's land? When your favorite team isn't a true contender, but isn't in rebuild mode either, it's tough to really get behind them. Are we playing for a not-too-distant future in which we make the playoffs? Or are we closer to the Washington Wizards?

Unfortunately, no man's land describes the Raptors all too well. At the halfway point of the season, Toronto is in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, 5 1/2 games out of the playoffs and 5 games out of last place. If you had to make a life or death decision, and predict the Raps to either make the playoffs or finish as the worst team in the conference, which would you pick? It's tough, right? That's not good.

Since we're at the halfway point, let's take a close look at the team. We'll start with some current storylines, move to some best-case scenarios going forward, and wrap up with a general prediction for the rest of the season. Full disclosure: it's not looking great, Raptors fans.

Associated Press

Where We're At:

It's been a weird year for the Raptors: they started off poorly, strung some wins together, and then lost a bunch more. Here are the three biggest storylines currently afoot.

1. Andrea Bargnani has got to go

I've made my feelings on Andrea known. Let's just say I'm not a fan. I know, he's been hurt for a big chunk of the season, so it's been tough to fully evaluate him. That said, I'm 100% sure that when he comes back, the Raps have to try to showcase him for a couple games and then promptly trade him.

This season has been a tough one for Bargs. Obviously, there's the injury that has kept him out since December 12. But even when he was healthy, Andrea was just bad. His 16.0 points-per-game, 12.4 PER and 39.8% field-goal percentage are his lowest since the 2007-08 season, and it just seems like the guy needs a change of scenery. He's a black-hole when he gets the ball, and a team with so many young players can't afford that. Do I, personally, hate Andrea's game? Sure. But it's more than a personal dislike for the guy. He's hurting the development of the younger players on the team, and has more than worn out his welcome.

The "stretch four" (a big man who can shoot from distance, and is seemingly always soft) seems to be one of the most valued trade pieces out there. Seriously, the guys at ESPN talk about it all the time, so it's not like the Raps would have a hard time trading Bargnani—apparently. At this point, I'd rather see Dwayne Casey rotate Ed Davis, Amir Johnson and even Quincy Acy every night than see Bargs throw up a ton of threes. With those three guys, you might see some development. You know what you're going to get from Bargnani, and its not enough.

Bargs has to be moved for the good of the team. I'll miss those amazing Primo Pasta commercials.

2. Kyle Lowry needs to step up and claim the starting job

Lowry has shown some flashes of great play this season, but lacks consistency. Meanwhile, Jose Calderon has managed to fight off yet another point guard and keep the starting gig thanks to his (think T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack). For the sake of the Raps as a franchise, Lowry needs to dethrone Jose and begin to lead the team.

Getty Images

Over at Grantland, Zach Lowe recently wrote a great article on the Raptors' point guard situation. I tend to agree with Lowe's ultimate point—Lowry has the much higher ceiling of the two, but has been inconsistent defensively, and often looks for his own shot first on offense. It's hard to argue with Lowry's numbers (a career-high PER of 22.3; per-game averages of 14.2 points, 5.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds), but the team runs more efficiently with Jose at the point. Lowry just loves the early-in-the-shot-clock 3-pointer a little too much, a shot which kills the offensive flow too often. He sees the court well enough to be a true pass-first point guard, but Lowry rarely showcases this ability for a full game.

Now I'm not saying the Raptors should necessarily trade Calderon. He's a great offensive point guard and is on an expiring contract, which makes him a nice trading chip. But—as always—he's been a steady hand for the Raptors, and if he would consider signing an affordable, short-term deal with Toronto in the off-season, I don't think trading him is a necessity. A Calderon/ Lowry combo at the point would be one of the better duos in the East both now, and going forward. Still, if Calderon could get a nice piece back in return, the Raps would have to consider it. Both for the upside, and trade possibilities, Lowry is the man to start.

Lowry is under team control next year, and is one of the absolute best contracts in the league (he'll make $6.2 million next season, less than both Amir Johnson and Landry Fields). The Raptors need to see if he is the long-term answer at point, and that process needs to begin soon.

3. Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas need to play—a lot

Spoiler alert: the Raptors aren't going to contend for the title this season.

I'll give you a second to let that sink in.

Canadian Press

Seriously, this team isn't great and should be mainly focused on building a strong nucleus of young players. A good place to start would be developing their current rookies, Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas.

Let's start with Jonas. He's been hurt since December 21, out with a fractured metacarpal in his ring finger. While not show-stopping, Jonas played well when healthy, chipping in on the glass and down low. He's athletic, has great hands and is only 20 years old. You can tell that he's still got to learn the NBA ropes when watching him try to defend, but he's an exciting prospect to say the least. His ceiling is definitely the highest of any Raptors big man. The original timetable had him out until early-February. Here's hoping he gets a lot of PT whenever he gets back.

Terrence Ross meanwhile has been ridiculously up-and-down this year, and it's frustrating the hell out of me. Obviously, there are all the dunks, and they're awesome. But the Raptors coaches have clearly given him a near-green light to shoot anytime he touches the ball, and he's taken it to heart. When his shot is going down, he's great. He's athletic enough to get past defenders, and has Kevin Durant really good range (no one has Kevin Durant range). But, like Lowry, the consistency isn't there. He too often settles for the deep 2 (the least efficient shot in basketball) instead of driving to the bucket, and as a result he shoots the Raps out of games at times.

That gripe, however, supports the idea of giving Ross more playing time: play him through his inconsistencies, to become more consistent. That's meta.

Best-Case Scenarios for the Rest of the Season:

We'll start with the good news: I think there are three realistic (maybe not probable, but possible) things the Raptors can do moving forward to make this season successful (outside of making the playoffs). The bad news is that none of these would make the Raptors contenders this season.

1. Make a splash and acquire a go-to scorer

The Raptors' lack of a go-to scorer reared it's ugly head again last night, as Alan Anderson jacked up shot after shot in overtime against the Heat. The Raps need a guy who can take over in crunch time, and with movable pieces—Bargnani, Calderon—could be active at the trade deadline. They may have to overpay for a guy, but Toronto needs to find the guy or they'll be in neutral for a while. We all know this has to happen because, and I cannot stress this enough, Alan Anderson had all the overtime looks last night.

2. Give Quincy Acy 10-15 minutes-per-game and watch him develop into a rebound/ hustle player

Traditionally, the Raptors are terrible at finding talent in the 2nd round of the draft (are Nathan Jawai or Giorgos Printezis tearing it up anywhere yet?), and while Quincy Acy isn't about to blossom into an all-star anytime soon, he has shown some promise in limited minutes for the Raptors. At face value, Acy's numbers aren't great. But when you look at his per 36-minute averages, Acy begins to resemble a poor man's Kenneth Faried (probably the best hustle guy out there). The Raptors don't have a single player who hangs his hat on defense and rebounds. Acy could develop into that guy, and it would pay off big-time in the future.

Toronto Sun

3. Avoid losing their first-round pick in the 2013 draft

The Raptors sent a protected first-round pick to Houston to acquire Kyle Lowry. Houston then moved that pick to Oklahoma City when they traded for James Harden. In all likelihood, this means OKC will replace the Toronto in the draft lottery next year. Unless, that is, the Raps come together and make a triumphant playoff push!!... or completely fall apart. Basically, if the pick in question ends up between 4-14 next season, it belongs to the Thunder; if the Raptors can avoid the draft lottery or end up with a top-3 pick, though, they keep it. I'd love for Toronto to make the playoffs, sure. But at a certain point, if it looks like they might miss the tournament, I'm all for tanking the year. The Raptors need to keep picks and develop young talent. Losing next years' pick would be a killer. I'm not saying the Raptors would throw the season if it went south. I am saying I'd give them a pass if they did.

Prediction Time:

I'll keep this short and sweet: the Raps will end up missing the playoffs and losing their first-round pick in the draft.

I know the East isn't particularly good, but neither are these Raptors. I don't see them leap-frogging the likes of Boston, Milwaukee or even Philadelphia which likely means they'll be on the outside looking in come playoff time. So what are Raptors fans to do? Well, and yes it sounds boring, think long term. Hope the young kids get out there and develop into legitimate NBA talents, hope the defense turns around—you know, boring shit like that.

Raps fans probably don't want to hear it, but this team isn't good, yet again. Normally fans can start looking at NBA Mock Drafts around this time, and fantasize about what college talent Toronto could get (I still remember when mock drafts suggested Toronto would get Kyrie Irving... sigh...). This season, however, it's all about developing the talent from within. Let's hope the kids can play.