AFC Championship Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - Sunday 3pm

The Case for Baltimore:

Ricky Williams could fuel the Ravens ground attack Sunday

The Ravens outlasted Houston last weekend to gain their first playoff win since the 2000-01 season, when they defeated the Denver Broncos in the first round en route to their franchise's only Super Bowl. The Ravens scored seventeen points in the first quarter, added a field goal in the fourth and shut out the Texans in the second half. The Texans out-gained the Ravens in the game by 88 yards, but it was turnovers that made the difference for Baltimore. The Ravens' D forced three interceptions from rookie T.J. Yates and recovered a Jacoby Jones fumble while not turning the ball over once in the game. 

Baltimore will need a similar effort from their D in their Sunday AFC Championship matchup with the Patriots. Tom Brady is coming off a six-TD performance against Denver and will be looking for more at home against the Ravens. The Ravens will need an effective and sustained pass rush to force mistakes from Brady and hopefully get him on the ground. Linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis will be a big factor, both in stopping the run and helping out in the pass rush, while Ed Reed and Lardarius Webb will play key roles in shutting down Wes Welker and the fearsome TE combination of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. 

The Ravens will look to the ground game more often in hopes of limiting Tom Brady's time with the ball. This should equate to Ricky Williams being more of a factor in this game than he was last week, as he rushed the ball only six times against the Texans. Williams will likely get a lot of inside handoffs, something that will tire the Patriots' defence, eat up yards and time, while giving a rest to Ray Rice who should handle most of the outside runs and passing downs. Receivers Lee Evans and Torrey Smith will be in charge of stretching the Pats' secondary on big plays while opening up room for Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson on short and intermediate routes. The Ravens will need a great game from Joe Flacco, but this unit is entirely capable of gashing the vulnerable Patriots' D for big gains and lots of points.

The Case for New England:

New England will be looking to advance to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in eleven seasons, but will have to defeat a tough Baltimore team to do so. These two teams have faced each other once before in the playoffs; the Ravens defeated the Pats 33-14 in 2010 after Baltimore jumped out to a 24-0 first quarter lead. Tom Brady was sacked three times in that game and also threw three picks, while Joe Flacco threw for only 34 yards had one interception. The key for Baltimore was their unstoppable rushing attack which gained 234 yards, 159 of which by Ray Rice. New England will have to stop this from happening on Sunday, as Baltimore clearly holds the advantage in the ground game. 

The Pats will try to get their vaunted passing game going early with quick routes from Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. If Tom Brady has time in the pocket, he will be able to find someone open all day. This is why New England's offensive line will be key in beating the Ravens, who will try anything to get pressure on Brady. Expect some quick passes and draw plays from the Patriots in an attempt to slow down this pass rush, which should give Brady all the time he needs to find one of his playmakers and move the ball down the field. Running the ball should be an uphill battle against one of the best linemen in the game, Haloti Ngata. However, Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will need to provide some effective runs to keep the Ravens' D honest.

Defensively, the Patriots will simply try to stop the run and big passing plays. The Ravens will be looking to pound the ball with their backs and slow the game down, in hopes of winning the ball possession battle. If this game turns into a ground-dominated battle for field position, the Ravens undoubtedly have the upper hand. The Patriots gave up 117 rushing yards per game during the season and 144 last week to the Broncos, something that can't be repeated against the Ravens, who rushed for 125 yards per game. While Joe Flacco is the NFL's only quarterback to win a playoff game in his each of his first four seasons, the Patriots will be trying to force Flacco to beat them, not Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. If this game becomes a battle of aerial attacks, the Patriots should be in great position to make it to another Super Bowl.