NFC Divisional Round preview

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers - Saturday, 4:30pm 

The Case For New Orleans:

The Saints have the hottest offense in the NFC, after rolling up a playoff-record 626 yards against the Detroit Lions. Once upon a time, this offense was considered to be too pass heavy. Now, however the Saints boast the most balanced and explosive attack in the NFL. They key for the Saints is to maintain this balance.

The Saints need to have some success running the ball, as this would open up the play action, which the Saints run extremely well. On the back-end of these play-action passes, the Saints receivers have to run crisp routes.

Marques Colston has 542 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games.

This could be a problem playing in muddy Candlestick Park, but if the linebackers are pulled in with a fake handoff, there should be enough space for Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston to get open. In short, if New Orleans can move the ball on the ground, their chances of moving on in the playoffs increase dramatically.

Defensively, New Orleans struggles to rush the passer, doesn’t force turnovers, and has been torched in the passing game. There is hope for the Saints, though, as they have thrived in one area: third down.

During the regular season, the Saints’ defence was top-5 in the NFL, allowing opposing teams to convert on only 33% of their third downs. Conversely, the 49ers offense was second-last in the NFL, converting only 29% of their third downs.

As they 49ers rely heavily on their ground game, New Orleans’ best chance to be successful defensively is to sell-out on the run on first and second down, and force the 49ers into third-and-longs. If they can force the 49ers' offense off the field often enough, there is no way San Fran can out-score the Saints.

The Case for San Francisco:

Frank Gore is a prototype of successful playoff running backs. He’s big, he’s hard to take down, and he has enough of a burst to outrun defensive backs. He’s the main reason why the 49ers had the 8^th best rushing attack in the regular season. And he’s the best chance San Francisco has for winning on Saturday.

If Gore can keep the chains moving, and—perhaps more importantly—keep the clock running, the Niners can keep the Saints off the field, and keep Brees glued to the bench. Of course, quarterback Alex Smith will shape the game as well, and the blueprint for him is the same its been all season: be efficient, and don’t turn the ball over.

Giving the Saints extra possessions is never a good idea, and Smith has been an expert at limiting turnovers all season, throwing only 5 all year. Another mistake free game is key to moving on to the NFC championship.

No defence has truly shut down the Saints offensive attack all year. Because of this, the 49ers approach on defence shouldn’t be to stop New Orleans completely, but rather to limit the big plays, and create turnovers. The Niners will need great play from all levels of their D: the line will have to get pressure while only rushing four; the linebackers will have to try to limit Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham in the passing game; and the secondary will have to keep the Saints’ receivers in front of them.

If San Fran can accomplish this, the next key is to capitalize on Brees’ aggressiveness. Every now and then, Brees tries to force a throw down field, and if the Niners can capitalize on this, they certainly could win. San Francisco was a league-best +28 in turnover ration in the Regular season, and winning the turnover battle against the Saints could lead the to victory.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday, 4:30pm

The Case for New York:

The 2011 season will go down as the year that Eli Manning established himself as an elite quarterback. Until this season, Eli detractors were plentiful, quick to pick apart his game. However, this year he pretty much led the Giants to the Playoffs himself. Naturally, then, the Giants will need a great performance out of him if the wish to upset the Packers.

But Eli’s play isn’t the biggest key for the Giants offensively. After finishing the regular season with the worst rushing attack in football, the G-Men gashed the Falcons for 172 yards on the ground. That is almost double their regular season rushing average of 89.2 rushing yards per game. The Giants need to maintain this rushing ability when they visit Green Bay if they want to come away with a win.

Like San Francisco, the Giants can’t hope to completely shut down their opponents. Instead, they have to hope to stop the big plays, and get pressure on the opposing quarterback. The Giants secondary is somewhat suspect. The defensive line, however, is the best in the league. As a team, the Giants tied for 3^rd in the regular season, registering 48 sacks.

New York needs to maintain this pace, and hope to pressure Rodgers enough to force some bad throws. If the d-line can force incompletions—or better yet turnovers—they could very well beat the Packers in Lambeau. If their stable of effective pass rushers are contained, however, Green Bay’s passing attack should prove too much for the Giants secondary to handle.

The Case for Green Bay:

The gameplan for the Packers should be pretty straightforward offensively: do what we’ve done all year. The most impressive thing about the Packers' season, isn’t just their ability to move the ball through the air, but it’s their efficiency. Aaron Rodgers had 45 touchdown passes, and 6 interceptions. That is ridiculous. He also averaged 9.2 yards per attempt. Again, ridiculous.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards on 502 attempts this season.

Sure, the Pack would like to improve on a rushing game that finished 27^th in the regular season. But when you have by far the most efficient passer in the league, one can envision Green Bay just trusting Rodgers to spread the ball around through the air, like he has all season.

Throughout the year people have pointed to the amount of yards the Packers give up on defence as their Achilles' Heel. However, the vast majority of those yards came in garbage time, after the Packers had already built up a big lead.

Packers fans should be a little worried their D will give up some big plays on Sunday. But when you take the ball away from opponents as well as Green Bay does, you’re going to be successful. Over the course of the season, the Packers' secondary intercepted a league-leading 31 balls, 8 more than the second place Patriots and 49ers.

The more picks the Packer D gets, the more short fields they give to Rodgers, the more points they score. Pretty simple logic there. Limiting the Giants' ground game would be icing on the cake for the Green Bay defence. However, the biggest factor for success on Sunday is forcing turnovers.