Just over a week ago, I finished an article noting that I was pretty sure Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo "will do a couple more things to convince me he's an idiot". Well, only one day into the season, he did just that. That has to be some kind of record.
You'll notice I said DeRozan plays a "passable" shooting-guard. I use that word, because so far in his career, DeRozan has proven that his game consists of exactly one above-average skill: the ability to score. DeRozan adds virtually nothing in terms of assists and rebounds, but he can sure score the basketball. There is danger, though, in the way he scores. DeRozan is not just a bad long-range shooter, he is a bad mid-range shooter too (see chart). Generally, shooting guards should be good at shooting. Really, DeRozan is just an athletic player, who is great in the air and who has improved his ability to finish at the rim, but who still lacks any semblance of a complete game. This contract ensures that, barring any dramatic improvements in DeRozan's skill-set, the Raptors will be starting a one-dimensional shooting guard for the next 4 years.
The move in question here is the re-signing of DeMar DeRozan (a 4-year, $38 million contract) on Wednesday night. Before we get too deep into this, I want to make it clear that I do not in fact dislike DeRozan. Everything you hear about him suggests that he is a great guy, and he plays a passable shooting-guard. No, this is all about how Colangelo handcuffed the entire franchise for the immediate future in one ill-timed move.
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| DeRozan's 2011-12 FG% from various spots on the floor Courtesy: Basketball Reference |
You'll notice I said DeRozan plays a "passable" shooting-guard. I use that word, because so far in his career, DeRozan has proven that his game consists of exactly one above-average skill: the ability to score. DeRozan adds virtually nothing in terms of assists and rebounds, but he can sure score the basketball. There is danger, though, in the way he scores. DeRozan is not just a bad long-range shooter, he is a bad mid-range shooter too (see chart). Generally, shooting guards should be good at shooting. Really, DeRozan is just an athletic player, who is great in the air and who has improved his ability to finish at the rim, but who still lacks any semblance of a complete game. This contract ensures that, barring any dramatic improvements in DeRozan's skill-set, the Raptors will be starting a one-dimensional shooting guard for the next 4 years.
It's not just the holes in DeRozan's game that make this move a terrible one for Colangelo and the Raptors. The broad salary-cap issues here are horrible as well. Most people acknowledge that Colangelo over paid for Landry Fields. That offer was made in an attempt to lure Steve Nash to Toronto, and while it didn't work, you can appreciate the sentiment. On pure face value, though, the Fields contract is bad. Any team can overcome one bad contract. But Colangelo apparently took the Fields contract as a challenge, and set out to sign a player to an even worse deal. Mission accomplished, Bryan: you've now got 2 bad contracts, at the same position. The exact details of the Fields and DeRozan contracts are hard to find. Taking the average of both contracts, though, the Raptors will be paying the two shooting guards over $16 million next season ($9.5 for DeRozan, and $6.6 for Fields). That is way too much for two league-average (at best) wing players.
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| A nice player, sure, but is he worth the money? (Getty Images) |
It gets even worse for the Raps. Anyone who saw the first game witnessed Kyle Lowry instantly insert himself into the who's-the-best-player-on-the-Raptors debate. His contract is up after next season, and even if his development stalls, and he plays at his current career average (he's actually more likely to improve), the Raptors would be wise to re-sign him. Between the $16 million dedicated to Fields/ DeRozan, the $10 million for Bargnani, $6.5 million for Amir Johnson, $4.6 million for Linas Kleiza and the $12+ million for a new contract for Lowry, the Raptors could have $50 million or more committed to just 6 players in a couple years. The luxury tax level this season was just over $70 million, and the Raptors are never going to be profitable enough to be able to afford the luxury tax. Obviously this could turn into a serious problem for Raptors teams in the future.
The absolute biggest misstep for Colangelo is when the signing was made. This situation was a perfect example of why restricted free-agency is in the NBA, and the Raptors GM played it horribly wrong. In DeRozan, the Raps had a young, talented player who had yet to even come close to reaching his potential. Toronto could have let DeRozan play out the season (with incentive to play hard every night, as he'd be playing for a new contract), and reacted accordingly after the season. If he didn't play well, Toronto could let him walk. If he improved enough, the Raps could have matched any contract DeRozan was offered, and kept him. That's the definition of restricted free-agency right there. Instead, Bryan Colangelo essentially outbid himself with this one. No team could approach DeRozan until after the season, and Colangelo responded by pulling the trigger, and dramatically over-paying the guy.
The new DeRozan deal will almost certainly create salary issues in the future (we haven't mentioned rookie Jonas Valanciunas, who will also be up for a new deal in a couple years). Colangelo has unnecessarily put this team on a financial tight-rope, just as the team was beginning to look like a budding playoff-contender. There is good news for Colangelo, though: if he keeps making moves like this, he won't have to worry about the future financial hardships for the Raps—he'll be out of a job.
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