Tuesday 20 September 2011

Justin Verlander: Most Valuable Pitcher



Recently, on Bill Simmons' BS Report podcast, former Red Sox player Kevin Millar aired his belief that the MVP award should go to an everyday player. Millar's thinking was that pitchers already have the Cy Young Award, which should be enough.

In reality though, the award should go to the best player, the player most valuable to his team. As we head towards the playoffs, there is almost no doubt that the AL MVP is Justin Verlander.

The last starting pitcher to win the AL MVP award was Roger Clemens in 1986. While he had a phenomenal season for the BoSox that year, Verlander's numbers in 2011 are better– almost across the board. Verlander's ERA (2.29), WHIP (0.91), K/9 (9.0), total Ks (244) and K/BB (4.36) all surpass Rocket's MVP-season numbers. Clemens had 24 wins that year. Verlander has 24 this year, with a couple starts remaining.

Roger Clemens was the last starting pitcher to win the MVP, in 1986
This in itself isn't enough to give him the award. Comparison across eras isn't what MVP awards are given out for. These numbers do help Verlander's case, though, when they are added to the fact that he has been invaluable for the AL Central-winning Tigers.

An MVP should directly correlate with wins, right? Well, the Tigers have won Verlander's last 12 starts. He is also 16-3 in starts that follow a Tigers' loss. This is in stark contrast to some of his competitors for the MVP award who are either on teams who won't be in the playoffs (Toronto's Jose Bautista), or on teams in the midst of a free-fall (Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez). Verlander is a workhorse, who logs big innings, and is directly responsible for his team's wins.

For those who believe that a starting pitcher, who plays once every five games, shouldn't garner MVP consideration, here's a stat. Verlander faces somewhere around 28 batters per start (28.45 as of September 8). Meanwhile, Curtis Granderson—another player up for the MVP—averages somewhere near 4 plate appearances per game (4.46 as of Sept. 8). If you take Verlander's batters-faced and stretch those over 5 Tigers games, it comes out to over 5. In this way, you could argue some starting pitchers—the front-line workhorses—affect their teams more directly than everyday hitters.

Verlander is the type of pitcher managers love. Jim Leyland of the Tigers doesn't have to worry about any of Verlander's starts, and knows that the bullpen will likely not get overworked in his games. While Granderson, Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Bautista have all gone through their respective slumps this year, Verlander has stayed consistently effective. This, again, differentiates him from fellow MVP candidates.

Verlander threw his second career no-hitter May 7, 2011
The season isn't over. Maybe Granderson or Ellsbury go on a tear, and the Yanks or Sox make a strong late-season push. Maybe Verlander gets rocked over his last couple starts. But as it stands now, Verlander is having a special season. He is the first AL pitcher to have at least 24 wins and 240 strikeouts since 1978. He threw his second-career no hitter. And he has an incalculable value to the Tigers.


This type of season deserves an MVP, not just a Cy Young.  

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