Friday 16 September 2011

Week 2 Forecaster



Rant of the Week:

Admit it: you knew it was coming. As the 4th quarter of last Sunday night's game wound down, you knew Tony Romo would do something so unthinkably un-clutch, it couldn't really have come as a surprise. It was almost like watching the hot girl wander out into the woods in a horror movie, calling “who's out there?”. You knew how it would end.

A couple of classic Romo turnovers later, and all of a sudden a sure win for America's Team turned into a fourth quarter collapse. Did the Jets win that game? Not really. I mean, its tough for any Jets fan to come away from that game feeling amazing about their team. Rather, the Boys found a way to lose. Between the aforementioned turnovers, and Dez Bryant's sudden inability to run, they barely stood a chance, even with a late lead. You might even say, they pulled a Romo.



The Cowboys are still a good team, granted. Their offensive line played better than expected, their defense constantly hassled Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez, and the three-receiver threat of Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten should provide for one of the best passing attacks in the NFL this year. That said, anytime they have a tough prime-time match-up, anytime they have a clutch moment, count on Romo to botch something. It's what he does.

Luckily for the Boys, this week is anything but a prime-time match-up. If all goes well, Romo won't get his chance to mess it up.

Picks:

Dallas (-3) @ San Francisco

I know, I just killed Romo for blowing it against the Jets. Bear in mind, though, that was strictly for his inherent ability to choke in big moments. This week, the Cowboys should have no need to preform in the clutch, as the 49ers are awful. Granted, I didn't watch much of the Seahawks- 49ers game, as it was all but guaranteed to be a terrible game. But anytime a team needs two late special teams returns to beat the hapless Seahawks at home, it isn't a strong endorsement. Unless I've missed something over the past 7 years, Alex Smith is not a starting NFL quarterback. He should struggle against a Dallas D that looked strong for most of their Week 1 loss. Pick the Boys.

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8 1/2)

Yes, you read that right. Detroit is favoured by more than a touchdown against a team that won their division last year. Who'd have thought, right? Well count me among the many that believe the Lions' decades of futility are finally over. As long as this team fields a healthy tandem of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best and WR Calvin Johnson, it's a safe bet they'll put up points. Add that to a defense that can give any O-line fits, and it seems like a recipe for success. Plus, the Chiefs were a flat out lucky team last year, that lost it's best defensive player, and one of it's most promising offensive guys before they played a meaningful game (Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki respectively). Hell has frozen over. Feel good about picking the Lions.

Green Bay (-10) @ Carolina

This one doesn't require much thinking. Last week in the season opener, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense were able to make viewers believe New Orleans was actually the ninth CFL franchise. Horrible tackling and secondary coverage aside, New Orleans' D isn't truly that bad, meaning Green Bay is really that good. Look for Rodgers and company to pick apart a Carolina defense missing it's best player in Jon Beason. And don't expect a repeat performance from Cam Newton. Rather, chalk up his record-breaking week 1 performance to a sub-par Arizona secondary, a familiarity to his surroundings in University of Phoenix stadium (Newton led Auburn to a BCS championship there last year over Oregon) and, well, beginner's luck. The Packers' D will make Newton look like the rookie he is. Pick the Cheeseheads to win big.

San Diego @ New England (-7)

This one has all the makings of a shootout. While Rivers and Brady both went to the air 48 times in their season debuts, the Golden Boy managed 182 more yards, 2 more TDs and one less pick. Look for Brady to continue to spread the ball around to his familiar wideouts in Welker and Branch (sorry Ocho), and his two young stud TEs, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Brady will help his slacking defense by keeping Rivers and the Charger offense off the field. When Rivers does get on the field, he won't be able to out-gun Brady for four quarters. Count on the Pats to continue their mammoth passing attack, and cover the spread against the Chargers.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-9)

The Jets squeaked out a week 1 victory thanks to the 4th quarter exploits of Tony Romo and a blocked punt returned for a TD. Look for Gang Green to make it look slightly easier against the Jags. Jacksonville was able to beat the Titans last week thanks to stellar run D, holding Chris Johnson to 24 yards, as well as a solid performance from MJD who ran for 97 yards and a score. As the Jags' only viable offensive weapon, Jones-Drew will be targeted by the Jets' D, forcing Luke McCown to make plays through the air. I doubt he will be able to maintain his 71% completion percentage against Rex Ryan's blitz schemes. I mean, it's Luke McCown. The Jets will deploy a balanced offensive attack that will exploit the Jags' D and lead to a double-digit victory.

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