Atlanta Braves
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| While his SB numbers are down, Bourn has remained the Braves' table-setter |
MVP: Michael Bourn
Brandon Beachy is tearing it up for the Braves right now (literally: a tear in his elbow has ended his year).
But, unlike most years, the Braves’ pitching staff as a whole is struggling.
Meanwhile, the Braves are 3rd in the NL in runs scored. Setting the
table for the offense is leadoff hitter Michael Bourn. Known as a threat on the
base-paths over the last few years, Bourn’s stolen base numbers are slightly
down this year. Pretty much all of his other offensive numbers are up, however,
and as long as he keeps getting on base at a reasonably good clip, he will
continue to score a ton of runs.
Best Case Scenario:
The rotation is full of young and highly regarded arms. In a
lot of ways, the Braves will go as far as those arms take them. The NL East has
quietly become the toughest division in baseball, so to win you have to both
hit and pitch well. If the Braves’ rotation rounds into form, they will remain
in the mix.
Worst Case Scenario:
Beachy's injury means the team is without a definite ace, and the rest of the rotation continues to struggle. Bourn’s numbers slip back into his
career-norm levels, and the team just can’t keep up in the highly-contested division.
Bottom Line:
The NL East really is up for grabs at this point in the
season. My money isn’t on the Braves, but they certainly good make a push, and
grab the division crown.
Miami Marlins
MVP: Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano
The 2012 Marlins make-over included a lot of change. New
stadium, new closer, new shortstop, new rotation. If you had asked me at the
beginning of the season which moves I liked the least, I would have said the
acquisitions of Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano—two pitchers I thought were
washed-up. Instead, they are bolstering a competitive rotation, at 1st
and 2nd in innings-pitched for the Fish. While neither have been
lights-out, they have both been surprisingly consistent and effective.
Best Case Scenario:
Simply, this team needs to score more runs. Jose Reyes has
been better lately than in the early-stages of the season, but 28 runs scored
at this point of the year is not enough for an elite lead-off hitter. Getting
Emilio Bonifacio back from injury will help in the runs department, while
getting consistent play out of Hanley Ramirez would also put this team in a
good position to compete for the NL East title.
Worst Case Scenario:
Buehrle and Zambrano show their age, new closer Heath Bell
continues to struggle, and Hanley Ramirez reverts into the player he was last
year. The Marlins probably have to avoid 2 of these 3 situations to remain in
contention.
Bottom Line:
As mentioned above, this division is too close to call.
While the Marlins have the pieces to potentially win the division, something
about this team suggests to me that they will be on the outside looking in come
playoff time.
New York Mets
MVP: Terry Collins
On paper, the Mets are the worst team in the NL East.
Somehow, though, the team has remained in the thick of the NL East all year.
Since I can’t explain their success, I’m just going to say that the manager has
done a great job. Well done, Terry Collins. You are perhaps the most deserving
MVP on this list.
Best Case Scenario:
They continue to keep pace in the division, despite not
doing any one things particularly well. The starters continue to perform at a
high level, and Ike Davis gets his BA above the Mendoza line, while
contributing as a slugger.
Worst Case Scenario:
A deafening “THUD!” as the team comes back down to earth.
Bottom Line:
Every year in baseball there are a few teams that surprise,
and make a push for the playoffs. Seeing this roster—and knowing the history of
the franchise—makes it hard to believe that the Mets are that out-of-nowhere
team this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
MVP: Hunter Pence
It’s been a tough 1/3 of the season for the Phillies. They
are last in the division, after wreaking havoc on the NL East for the last
couple years. However, a look at their team statistics suggest that they aren’t
as bad as their record indicates. Particularly, offensively the Phillies are
quite a good team. Because of that the MVP has to go to Hunter Pence, who is
quietly putting together quite a nice season.
Best Case Scenario:
Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay all get back to
health as soon as possible, and the Phillies begin to resemble the teams of
2009-2011. Cliff Lee actually wins a couple of games.
Worst Case Scenario:
The team is already too far out of contention. While the
division is still up for grabs for most teams, it will be interesting to see if
the Phils dug themselves too deep with their early season struggles, and have
to pass the division crown on to another team.
Bottom Line:
If healthy, this team is as good as any in the division.
However, with the long-term injury to Halladay, and the bizarre, and still
uncertain injury to Utley, it may be too much for the Phils to recover from.
Washington Nationals
MVP: Starting Rotation
Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg have been aces, Edwin
Jackson and Jordan Zimmermann have been near-aces and Ross Detwiler has been a
solid number-three starter. All five pitchers have been great, consistently put
their team in a position to win, and combine to make the best rotation in
baseball. While Strasburg or Gonzalez could have got the MVP themselves, the
group as a whole has been so good, that the top-2 will have to share the
hardware.
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| Strasburg has anchored the Nat's Elite Rotation |
Best Case Scenario:
The team is quite good as is, but they could use some extra
offensive output. They won’t get Jayson Werth back until after the all-star
break, but if he can return, and play like he did early in the season the Nats
would be thrilled.
Worst Case Scenario:
While it would be seemingly impossible for all 5 of the
starters’ production to stall, having 2 or 3 begin to struggle could be
problematic for the Nationals as we head into the middle of the season.
Bottom Line:
Count me among the believers in the Nationals. The rotation
is Elite (notice the capital ‘E’), and between Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper and
(as the season progresses) Jayson Werth, they should score enough runs to at
least remain in the discussion for the NL East crown.
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