Cincinnati @ Houston - Saturday, January 5th 4:30 PM
Just 3 weeks ago, Houston was the run-away favorite to begin the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC. Then, their defense completely fell apart, Matt Schaub laid a couple stinkers and Arian Foster was held out with an irregular heartbeat. Needless to say, they struggled.
And yet, I fully expect the Texans to win on Saturday.
No doubt, Arian Foster will get plenty of touches, as he has all year. His 351 carries this year are the most any back has had since 2009 (Chris Johnson had 358), and while Foster has been less explosive than in recent years, the Texans' run-game is always relentless, and often wears teams down.
Foster is the known-quantity in this one, so in a lot of ways the game will come down to quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub's been terrible recently, and the Texans just don't win if he plays poorly: in Houston's 4 losses, Schaub has 0 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. I expect Foster to get things going early, and then Schaub to use the play-action to connect on a couple big plays.
It'd be a shame not to mention J.J. Watt here. He is awesome, and has been all season. While the Texans' secondary has fallen apart in recent weeks, Watt has been unrelenting and is sure to get a sack or two, bat down a couple of Andy Dalton's pass attempts, and wreak havoc in the Bengals' backfield.
Seriously... he's awesome.
Seriously... he's awesome.
On the other sideline, the Bengals just don't have enough on either side of the ball to win this game. Offensively, they have the best young receiver in the game in A.J. Green. But that's it. On defense, they have one of the best lines going, and can hassle any quarterback. But, again, that's it. Cincy should be positive about the future, as they are a young, talented team, but I just don't think can come up with enough big plays to take this game.
The Call: Houston wins 27-17
Indianapolis @ Baltimore - Sunday, January 6 1:00 PM
For my money, this game is the closer of the two AFC tilts. Baltimore—like Houston—is hosting a playoff game, despite looking bad the last few weeks of the regular season. Indy, on the other hand, has been riding the emotion surrounding Chuck Pagano, their head coach, and the arm of their stud rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck. Both teams are good-but-not-great, and should battle it out in a tight contest.
The one thing going for Baltimore in this one is how good they have been at home in recent memory. Since 2009, the Ravens are 28-5 in Baltimore, including the playoffs. That's tough to argue with. Indy, meanwhile, was 4-4 on the road this season (compared to 7-1 at home), so it's safe to say Baltimore has the edge in that facet.
One thing going against the Ravens is the myth that is their defense. Let's just say it: the Ravens D is not good. They developed a reputation as one of the best defenses in the league in the early 2000s, but that was the early 2000s. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are the only holdovers from those units, and both of those guys have lost a couple steps. You can run on the Ravens, you can pass on the Ravens, you can score on the Ravens. Terrell Suggs should be in the lineup for Baltimore, which should help the defensive unit a bit, but they won't be winning the game on their own.
You want to know who could win this game on their own? Ray Rice. And that has got to be the key for the Ravens heading into this one. The Ravens are something like 6000-and-0 when Ray Rice gets 25-plus touches (note: not a fact), while the Colts' defense has settled comfortably near the bottom of the league, both in terms of defending the pass and the run. Rice should be able to tear them up. As long as quarterback Joe Flacco doesn't try to prove he's "elite" by taking a ton of shots deep down-field (and he gives the damn ball to Rice), the Ravens should be able to move up and down the field.
The Colts are kind of like the Bengals, in that they don't do anything exceptionally well. Luck has a tremendously bright future ahead of him, but the defense just isn't there right now, and their run-game has been non-existent pretty much all year. 7 of Indy's 11 wins this year have come in one possession games, against poor teams. They beat Cleveland (by 4), Tennessee (by 6 in OT, and by 4 in their second meeting), Miami (by 3), Buffalo (by 7), Detroit (by 2) and Kansas City (by 7). Baltimore is way better than all of those teams, and I think they have just enough to take this one.
The Call: Baltimore wins 31-28
Indianapolis @ Baltimore - Sunday, January 6 1:00 PM
For my money, this game is the closer of the two AFC tilts. Baltimore—like Houston—is hosting a playoff game, despite looking bad the last few weeks of the regular season. Indy, on the other hand, has been riding the emotion surrounding Chuck Pagano, their head coach, and the arm of their stud rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck. Both teams are good-but-not-great, and should battle it out in a tight contest.
The one thing going for Baltimore in this one is how good they have been at home in recent memory. Since 2009, the Ravens are 28-5 in Baltimore, including the playoffs. That's tough to argue with. Indy, meanwhile, was 4-4 on the road this season (compared to 7-1 at home), so it's safe to say Baltimore has the edge in that facet.
One thing going against the Ravens is the myth that is their defense. Let's just say it: the Ravens D is not good. They developed a reputation as one of the best defenses in the league in the early 2000s, but that was the early 2000s. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are the only holdovers from those units, and both of those guys have lost a couple steps. You can run on the Ravens, you can pass on the Ravens, you can score on the Ravens. Terrell Suggs should be in the lineup for Baltimore, which should help the defensive unit a bit, but they won't be winning the game on their own.
You want to know who could win this game on their own? Ray Rice. And that has got to be the key for the Ravens heading into this one. The Ravens are something like 6000-and-0 when Ray Rice gets 25-plus touches (note: not a fact), while the Colts' defense has settled comfortably near the bottom of the league, both in terms of defending the pass and the run. Rice should be able to tear them up. As long as quarterback Joe Flacco doesn't try to prove he's "elite" by taking a ton of shots deep down-field (and he gives the damn ball to Rice), the Ravens should be able to move up and down the field.
The Colts are kind of like the Bengals, in that they don't do anything exceptionally well. Luck has a tremendously bright future ahead of him, but the defense just isn't there right now, and their run-game has been non-existent pretty much all year. 7 of Indy's 11 wins this year have come in one possession games, against poor teams. They beat Cleveland (by 4), Tennessee (by 6 in OT, and by 4 in their second meeting), Miami (by 3), Buffalo (by 7), Detroit (by 2) and Kansas City (by 7). Baltimore is way better than all of those teams, and I think they have just enough to take this one.
The Call: Baltimore wins 31-28
I think that neither the Texans nor the Ravens ended the season on a high note, and this mini-slump for both teams will not stand them in god stead going into the playoffs.
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