San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday January 20, 3:00 PM
Seemingly everybody has the 49ers in the Super Bowl after they tore apart the Packers on Saturday, and are facing an Atlanta team who were extremely close to choking in yet another home playoff game. It's hard for me to believe that this one will be a blowout though, as the past five NFC Championship games were decided by less than 7 points and three of the games went to OT.
First of all, these teams go about their business in different ways. San Fran gained just seven yards per game less than the Falcons this season, but were remarkably better balanced offensively. The 49ers rushing attack made up for 43% of their total offense compared to Atlanta's ground game which accounted for just 23.5% of their offense's yards. San Fran's fourth-best rush D should be able to stop Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers with relative ease, leaving Matt Ryan to do most of the heavy lifting. Unfortunately for Matty Ice and his formidable corps of Gonzalez, White and Jones, the 49ers pass defense was also fourth-best this season.
We all learned a lesson about Colin Kaepernick on Saturday, and it's one that should terrify Atlanta. Kaepernick and the 49ers rushed for 323 yards against the Packers, who were slightly better than the Falcons' D against the run this season. Also Simon pointed out last week that the Falcons struggled to stop Cam Newton in both meetings this year, and if last week's second-half collapse against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks was any indication, Kaepernick should prove to be a read-option nightmare for Atlanta.
San Fran had trouble playing from behind early in games for a lot of this year as their offense was mainly geared around the ground game and conservative passes. If Atlanta gets a big lead early like they did against Seattle, I expect them to be prepared to manage that lead more effectively. However, with Kaepernick's big play ability and targets like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis playing on the Georgia Dome's turf, they might not get that chance again. Also, if this game is decided by a clock management error or a coaching gaffe, I'm taking my chances with Jim Harbaugh over Mike Smith any day.
The Call: 49ers win 31-23.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - January 20, 6:30 PM
Over the last 3 years, Baltimore and New England have quietly developed one of the best rivalries in the NFL. They've met 3 times in that span, resulting in 2 Patriots wins and 3 ridiculously close final scores: 31-30 earlier this season, 23-20 in last years' conference championship, and 23-20 in a 2010 regular season game that needed overtime. I had a gut feeling that last weekend's Ravens-Broncos game would be close; I know this one will be.
Neither of the defenses featured in this one are particularly good, but both know how to slow down the opposing offense. The Ravens have always been able to get after Tom Brady, especially by rushing up the middle, something that always frustrates the Golden Boy. Meanwhile, the Pats' D thrives against the run, which has to frustrate Baltimore since they want to get Ray Rice the ball. Neither secondary is great, so both QBs should be able to do what they do best: Brady will hit a ton of short passes underneath coverage, while Joe Flacco will probably connect on a couple deep bombs.
This one really boils to the amount of playmakers on either squad, which is a decided advantage for New England. Even without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have more than enough guys—at various positions—that can make plays. There's Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd, Ridley, Woodhead (probable for Sunday) and apparently Shane Vereen, all of whom can do some damage at any given moment. That combo easily trumps the Ravens' Rice, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith trifecta.
This one will be tight, but ultimately I think the Pats will be able to make a few more plays than the Ravens.
The Call: Patriots win 27-21.
Seemingly everybody has the 49ers in the Super Bowl after they tore apart the Packers on Saturday, and are facing an Atlanta team who were extremely close to choking in yet another home playoff game. It's hard for me to believe that this one will be a blowout though, as the past five NFC Championship games were decided by less than 7 points and three of the games went to OT.
First of all, these teams go about their business in different ways. San Fran gained just seven yards per game less than the Falcons this season, but were remarkably better balanced offensively. The 49ers rushing attack made up for 43% of their total offense compared to Atlanta's ground game which accounted for just 23.5% of their offense's yards. San Fran's fourth-best rush D should be able to stop Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers with relative ease, leaving Matt Ryan to do most of the heavy lifting. Unfortunately for Matty Ice and his formidable corps of Gonzalez, White and Jones, the 49ers pass defense was also fourth-best this season.
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| Reuters |
We all learned a lesson about Colin Kaepernick on Saturday, and it's one that should terrify Atlanta. Kaepernick and the 49ers rushed for 323 yards against the Packers, who were slightly better than the Falcons' D against the run this season. Also Simon pointed out last week that the Falcons struggled to stop Cam Newton in both meetings this year, and if last week's second-half collapse against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks was any indication, Kaepernick should prove to be a read-option nightmare for Atlanta.
San Fran had trouble playing from behind early in games for a lot of this year as their offense was mainly geared around the ground game and conservative passes. If Atlanta gets a big lead early like they did against Seattle, I expect them to be prepared to manage that lead more effectively. However, with Kaepernick's big play ability and targets like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis playing on the Georgia Dome's turf, they might not get that chance again. Also, if this game is decided by a clock management error or a coaching gaffe, I'm taking my chances with Jim Harbaugh over Mike Smith any day.
The Call: 49ers win 31-23.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - January 20, 6:30 PM
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| Associated Press |
Neither of the defenses featured in this one are particularly good, but both know how to slow down the opposing offense. The Ravens have always been able to get after Tom Brady, especially by rushing up the middle, something that always frustrates the Golden Boy. Meanwhile, the Pats' D thrives against the run, which has to frustrate Baltimore since they want to get Ray Rice the ball. Neither secondary is great, so both QBs should be able to do what they do best: Brady will hit a ton of short passes underneath coverage, while Joe Flacco will probably connect on a couple deep bombs.
This one really boils to the amount of playmakers on either squad, which is a decided advantage for New England. Even without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have more than enough guys—at various positions—that can make plays. There's Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd, Ridley, Woodhead (probable for Sunday) and apparently Shane Vereen, all of whom can do some damage at any given moment. That combo easily trumps the Ravens' Rice, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith trifecta.
This one will be tight, but ultimately I think the Pats will be able to make a few more plays than the Ravens.
The Call: Patriots win 27-21.
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