Don't look now, but the Heat are starting to run away in the Eastern Conference. They may have struggled earlier in the year, but they look pretty damn good these days. There's pretty much no chance the Heat would get upset in the first round, so let's take a look at the teams directly behind Miami in the standings and figure out if any of them would have a chance in a 7-game series (spoiler alert: the Heat should be considered heavy favorites to make the NBA Finals).
MIAMI HEAT - (40-14)
What They Do Well: 49.2% Team Field Goal Percentage (1st in NBA); 38.6% Team 3-Point Percentage (3rd); 102.8 Points-per-game (5th); 43.9% Opponents' Field Goal Percentage (7th); Defensive Efficiency (12th).
Where They Struggle: Rebound Rate (22nd)... that's about it.
Bottom Line: I'm not going to sit here and tell you that the Heat have any glaring weaknesses, because they are, in fact, really really good. Miami is tremendously efficient offensively, and they are still one of the best defensive teams in the league (although they've slipped a little from last season). Really, the only thing they don't do particularly well is rebound and they've managed do deal with that all year.
INDIANA PACERS - (35-21; 6 Games Back)
What They Do Well: Rebounding Rate (1st); Defensive Efficiency (1st); 41.9% Opponents' Field Goal Percentage (1st); Allowing 90.2 Points-per-game (2nd)
Where They Struggle: 43.1% Field Goal Percentage (26th); 35.1% 3-Point Percentage (17th); 92.8 Points-per-game (28th); Offensive Efficiency (24th)
How They Stack Up: The Pacers are the best defensive team in the league, by far. This may have slipped past you because it's so boring to watch because nobody tunes into NBA games for defense. But it's still true. Indiana's rotations are great, they force tough jump shots, and they don't allow many offensive rebounds. And that's exactly why I think they would have a shot against the Heat. Yes, their offense is anemic. But, they have a potential 20-point scorer returning from injury (Danny Granger) and match up relatively well against the big three of Miami. Paul George is one of the best wing defenders in the game, and could give LeBron some trouble; Roy Hibbert is a tough defender down low and would be a difficult matchup for Bosh (in the post, at least); and the Pacers have enough athletic guys on the wing to throw at Wade and make him work (guys like George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Gerald Green). The big question is obviously their offense, which honestly might not be good enough. Still, I think the Pacers could force the Heat to play ugly basketball and would have a puncher's chance to win the series.
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| Associated Press |
NEW YORK KNICKS - (33-20; 6.5 Games Back)
What They Do Well: Turnover Rate (1st); Offensive Efficiency (3rd); 38.1% 3-Points Field Goal Percentage (6th)
Where They Struggle: Rebound Rate (17th); Assist Rate (25th); 45.9% Opponents' Field Goal Percentage (worst of any division leader)
How They Stack Up: The Knicks are a very good offensive team, which is a plus. The only problem is that they don't do anything else at a high rate. They're rebounding is only slightly better than Miami's, and they don't defend at a particularly high level either (defensive efficiency is 14th in the league). The other problem here is matchups: while Tyson Chandler guarding Chris Bosh is perhaps an advantage for New York, LeBron is too good for Carmelo to stop for 48 minutes and Dwyane Wade would simply beat up a guy like Jason Kidd or J.R. Smith (I suppose they could throw out Iman Shumpert for an extended run, but that hurts the Knicks offensively). Ultimately, the Knicks just wouldn't be able to stop the Heat. They could steal a couple games with some hot shooting maybe, but I wouldn't like their chances in a 7 game series.
BROOKLYN NETS - (33-24; 8.5 Games Back)
What They Do Well: Rebound Rate (5th); Allowing 94.6 Points-per-game (5th)
Where They Struggle: Defensive Efficiency (18th); 94.8 Points-per-game (21st); 44.0% Field Goal Percentage (21st); 34.6% 3-Point Percentage (21st); 46.3% Opponents' Field Goal Percentage (23rd)
How They Stack Up: This Brooklyn team is a little strange. Going by statistics, they don't really do anything that well outside of rebounding. Yes, they don't allow a lot of points, but on the other hand teams shoot a very high percentage against them. The Nets don't score a ton, don't shoot a high percentage and don't assist on a lot of buckets either (25th in assist rate). So, honestly, there aren't a ton of reasons to like their chances against Miami. Gerald Wallace is a plus defender, so maybe he could slow LeBron down a bit, but Brook Lopez is terrible on that end of the floor, and Joe Johnson would have a tough time keeping up with D-Wade. They don't have the depth of the Knicks, so out of the two teams above, I'd figure they'd have the toughest time against Miami in the playoffs.
All statistics courtesy HoopData
Agree with the analysis, and would also add.....Swagger. Beyond the statistics (or as reflected in the statistics) the Heat seem to have developed a certain intangible that the Lakers have obviously now lost. That should also help them in the playoffs.
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