Biggest Surprise (team)
Daugulis: Atlanta Hawks
Dow: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets' success this season will depend on the health of Eric Gordon and the ability of first overall pick Anthony Davis to become acclimated to the NBA game. Gordon has a chance to start in the season opener, but is a risky #1 scoring option due to his history of knee injuries. Anthony Davis spent the summer around the best players in the world at the Olympics, which you can reasonably assume will help his transition to the pros after winning a one-and-done championship with Kentucky. New additions Robin Lopez and Ryan Anderson should combine with Davis to form a passable front-court, with Anderson and Davis creating difficulties for opposing defenses with their range. Austin Rivers is a talented scorer but will likely struggle in his first season as an NBA PG. This team could surprise as a 7 or 8 seed.
Biggest Disappointment (team)
Daugulis: Dallas Mavericks
Mark Cuban tried to get Deron Williams, and it failed. Then, he tried to get Dwight Howard... and that also failed. What the Mavs are left with is an uninspiring roster filled with some names that would have been flashy, if only it were 2001 (Eddy Curry, Elton Brand and Vince Carter come to mind). Dirk Nowitzki is expected to miss a little time at the beginning of the season, but no one is really sure exactly how many games he'll miss. The Mavs are hoping its only a couple, as he will be relied on heavily. I have Dallas missing the playoffs, which obviously would be a disappointment for a franchise that won the championship just 2 seasons ago.
Dow: Philadelphia 76ers
Andrew Bynum is now the star in Philly and, as always, his health will be a huge concern. Bynum played in 70% and started just 54% off all possible games in 7 seasons with the Lakers. I don't think Bynum has what it takes to be the main guy at both ends of the court for 82 games. Philly's defense was 3rd last year in PPG (89.4), something that won't be sustained after Andre Iguodala's departure forces Evan Turner into a starting role, and into guarding Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce fairly regularly. There are some potentially improved teams in the bottom half of the East (Nets, Pistons, Raptors for instance) which leaves little room for error for the new-look 76ers. I see them as a borderline lottery team.
Biggest Surprise (player)
Daugulis: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs repackaged themselves as a high-tempo, attacking offensive team last year. That style took them to the best regular season record, and is sure to continue this season. Leonard didn’t play a huge role early, but he averaged 8.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in the playoffs—as a rookie. Big things could be coming in 2012-13.
Dow: Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
Greg Monroe started all 66 games for the Pistons last year in his second season as a pro. While logging increased minutes from his rookie year, Monroe improved all of his major stats except FG% and was 0.3 rebounds/game away from averaging a double-double (15.4 ppg). While he doesn't block a lot of shots, he makes up for it with his steals and is also a good passer for a center. I expect Monroe to continue to improve statistically and further solidify himself as a legitimate force at the 5, while helping the Pistons make a push for the playoffs.
Biggest Disappointment (player)
Daugulis: James Harden, Houston Rockets
This one stings, because I am a big Harden fan. He was great as the leader of OKC’s second unit, but it was a second unit. There will be no hiding behind Durant and Westbrook in Houston. Outside of Harden, the Rockets will rely on Jeremy Lin to provide scoring, and that hasn’t gone well in the preseason (he shot 28.3% from the floor... that's bad). Harden will see a lot of double-teams, and I just don’t think he’s ready to put a team on his shoulders.
Dow: Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks acquired Korver in a trade from the Bulls after Joe Johnson's departure. While he will help make up for some of Johnson's lost scoring, he will prove to be a liability on the defensive end. Korver is playing in the same division and at the same position as LeBron James, as well as other talented SFs in the East. I still think Atlanta is a playoff team this year but they will be limited by Korver, who has started just 110 of his 664 NBA games.
MVP
Daugulis: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
Honestly, this award probably belongs to LeBron. That said, Rondo’s 2011-12 Playoff run was amazing (17.3 ppg, 11.9 apg, 6.7 rpg, 2.4 spg) so there’s a chance he’s in the mix for some hardware at the end of the year. I see a big season for Rondo.
Dow: LeBron James, Miami Heat
The obvious pick. LeBron is in his prime and looking to reach MJ-level dominance. I expect LBJ to play this season with a sizeable weight off his shoulders and easily fend off all contenders for another MVP crown.
Rookie of the Year
Daugulis: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Another obvious pick. There are a lot of talented rookies in the league this year, but none possess the all-around ability of Anthony Davis. He's on a team with low expectations and decent talent, so he should be able to flourish in New Orleans and take the first step toward a lengthy, HOF career in the NBA.
Finals
Daugulis: Heat over Lakers in 6
Dow: Heat over Spurs in 5
First Team All-NBA
Daugulis:
F - LeBron James, MIA
F - Kevin Durant, OKC
C - Dwight Howard, LAL
G - Kobe Bryant, LAL
G - Rajon Rondo, BOS
Dow:
F - LeBron James, MIA
F - Kevin Durant, OKC
C - Dwight Howard, LAL
G - Kobe Bryant, LAL
G - Deron Williams, BKN
Daugulis: Atlanta Hawks
Some people will write these guys off, since they lost Joe Johnson. But let's all take a deep breath, and remember that Johnson was (still is) the worst contract in the NBA. Certainly, that suggests that he isn't a true franchise player, even if he is getting paid like one. This year's Hawks will be led by Josh Smith (in a contract year), and Al Horford, two young big men who will give most teams matchup problems. They added long-range shooting in Anthony Morrow and Kyle Korver, and also have an elite wing defender in DeShawn Stevenson. This team is a lock for the playoffs in my mind, and could end up hosting a first-round playoff series.
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| Korver moves from one playoff team to another |
Dow: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets' success this season will depend on the health of Eric Gordon and the ability of first overall pick Anthony Davis to become acclimated to the NBA game. Gordon has a chance to start in the season opener, but is a risky #1 scoring option due to his history of knee injuries. Anthony Davis spent the summer around the best players in the world at the Olympics, which you can reasonably assume will help his transition to the pros after winning a one-and-done championship with Kentucky. New additions Robin Lopez and Ryan Anderson should combine with Davis to form a passable front-court, with Anderson and Davis creating difficulties for opposing defenses with their range. Austin Rivers is a talented scorer but will likely struggle in his first season as an NBA PG. This team could surprise as a 7 or 8 seed.
Daugulis: Dallas Mavericks
Mark Cuban tried to get Deron Williams, and it failed. Then, he tried to get Dwight Howard... and that also failed. What the Mavs are left with is an uninspiring roster filled with some names that would have been flashy, if only it were 2001 (Eddy Curry, Elton Brand and Vince Carter come to mind). Dirk Nowitzki is expected to miss a little time at the beginning of the season, but no one is really sure exactly how many games he'll miss. The Mavs are hoping its only a couple, as he will be relied on heavily. I have Dallas missing the playoffs, which obviously would be a disappointment for a franchise that won the championship just 2 seasons ago.
Dow: Philadelphia 76ers
Andrew Bynum is now the star in Philly and, as always, his health will be a huge concern. Bynum played in 70% and started just 54% off all possible games in 7 seasons with the Lakers. I don't think Bynum has what it takes to be the main guy at both ends of the court for 82 games. Philly's defense was 3rd last year in PPG (89.4), something that won't be sustained after Andre Iguodala's departure forces Evan Turner into a starting role, and into guarding Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce fairly regularly. There are some potentially improved teams in the bottom half of the East (Nets, Pistons, Raptors for instance) which leaves little room for error for the new-look 76ers. I see them as a borderline lottery team.
Biggest Surprise (player)
Daugulis: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs repackaged themselves as a high-tempo, attacking offensive team last year. That style took them to the best regular season record, and is sure to continue this season. Leonard didn’t play a huge role early, but he averaged 8.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in the playoffs—as a rookie. Big things could be coming in 2012-13.
 |
| Leonard had a good playoffs alongside the Spurs' aging stars |
Dow: Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
Greg Monroe started all 66 games for the Pistons last year in his second season as a pro. While logging increased minutes from his rookie year, Monroe improved all of his major stats except FG% and was 0.3 rebounds/game away from averaging a double-double (15.4 ppg). While he doesn't block a lot of shots, he makes up for it with his steals and is also a good passer for a center. I expect Monroe to continue to improve statistically and further solidify himself as a legitimate force at the 5, while helping the Pistons make a push for the playoffs.
Biggest Disappointment (player)
Daugulis: James Harden, Houston Rockets
This one stings, because I am a big Harden fan. He was great as the leader of OKC’s second unit, but it was a second unit. There will be no hiding behind Durant and Westbrook in Houston. Outside of Harden, the Rockets will rely on Jeremy Lin to provide scoring, and that hasn’t gone well in the preseason (he shot 28.3% from the floor... that's bad). Harden will see a lot of double-teams, and I just don’t think he’s ready to put a team on his shoulders.
 |
| Harden was officially introduced to the Houston media on Monday |
Dow: Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks acquired Korver in a trade from the Bulls after Joe Johnson's departure. While he will help make up for some of Johnson's lost scoring, he will prove to be a liability on the defensive end. Korver is playing in the same division and at the same position as LeBron James, as well as other talented SFs in the East. I still think Atlanta is a playoff team this year but they will be limited by Korver, who has started just 110 of his 664 NBA games.
MVP
Daugulis: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
Honestly, this award probably belongs to LeBron. That said, Rondo’s 2011-12 Playoff run was amazing (17.3 ppg, 11.9 apg, 6.7 rpg, 2.4 spg) so there’s a chance he’s in the mix for some hardware at the end of the year. I see a big season for Rondo.
Dow: LeBron James, Miami Heat
The obvious pick. LeBron is in his prime and looking to reach MJ-level dominance. I expect LBJ to play this season with a sizeable weight off his shoulders and easily fend off all contenders for another MVP crown.
Rookie of the Year
Daugulis: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Now I didn’t catch a lot of this guy last year, because he played at Weber State (don't even know where that is). But apparently he played 4 years there, in a pick-and-roll heavy offense. He’s looked awesome in the preseason, and since the pick-and-roll is seemingly 90% of all NBA offenses, he should adapt to the game pretty quickly.
Dow: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets
Another obvious pick. There are a lot of talented rookies in the league this year, but none possess the all-around ability of Anthony Davis. He's on a team with low expectations and decent talent, so he should be able to flourish in New Orleans and take the first step toward a lengthy, HOF career in the NBA.
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| Anthony Davis has a head start on all other NBA rookies |
Finals
Daugulis: Heat over Lakers in 6
Dow: Heat over Spurs in 5
First Team All-NBA
Daugulis:
F - LeBron James, MIA
F - Kevin Durant, OKC
C - Dwight Howard, LAL
G - Kobe Bryant, LAL
G - Rajon Rondo, BOS
Dow:
F - LeBron James, MIA
F - Kevin Durant, OKC
C - Dwight Howard, LAL
G - Kobe Bryant, LAL
G - Deron Williams, BKN
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