After 113 days of frustration and uncertainty, the NHL lockout came to an end on January 6. What once seemed like a lost season will now feature a 48-game schedule crammed into 99 days starting January 19. Here are some thoughts on the end of the lockout and some of the bigger headlines leading into Saturday's opening night.
1. Shortened season will favour rivalry games, leave out inter-conference matchups
Much like this year, the NHL salvaged a 48-game season after the 1994-95 lockout. The difference between now and then is that there are 4 more teams in the league, meaning no time for out-of-conference games and leaving teams to play two of their division rivals 5 times and the other two division teams 4 times. That means teams will play within their division in roughy 38% of their games. In a normal 82-game NHL season, teams play 24 division games which works out to 29% of their schedule. Will this have a significant effect on this season's standings?
2. Expect strong teams in weaker divisions to dominate regular season standings
This might seem a tad obvious as it happens to a certain degree every season, but I expect teams like Boston and Vancouver to shoot to the top of their respective conference standings faster than usual. Vancouver was the only playoff team in the Northwest division in 2011-12, and the only team with over 90 points in the regular season (Calgary had exactly 90, the lowest total for teams finishing second in their division). While I expect Edmonton and Minnesota to improve their records I still think the Canucks are far and away the best team in the division. Likewise, Boston will likely benefit from playing a large portion of their season against the likes of the Canadiens and Maple Leafs, two young teams who I expect will be among the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Using the same logic, weak teams in stronger divisions will suffer through worse-than-usual seasons. The Blue Jackets and the Islanders were the only teams in their respective divisions to miss the playoffs last season, and with the shortened schedule it will seem like these teams will be getting crushed by their strong division rivals every other night.
3. NHL fans are smitten with Gary Bettman after the league's official apology
The NHL issued this newspaper apology yesterday, little more than a week after Gary Bettman's heartfelt speech apologizing to fans, players and employees of the league. I understand the PR reasons behind these apologies but as a fan they are useless; all we want is to be able to watch the game, and these words will become moot in ten years when we have another labour dispute anyway. There is one line from today's newspaper ad that I would love to see taken to heart: "From today forward, we will do everything we can to make this season worth the wait." One thing that comes to mind is free access to NHL Gamecenter, the online subscription service that allows fans to watch out-of-market games on their computer, phone, tablet and/or gaming system. While that seemed like a pie-in-the-sky idea, the NHL has lowered the price to $49.99 for the season, which if you were to only watch your favourite team's games would work out to just $1.04 per game. I still think they should've gone farther with this discount, but with stringent television contracts and lost revenue from the lockout, there was no way they could offer it for free.
4. Brian Burke's firing was oddly timed but completely understandable
Brian Burke was seen as a saviour by many Leaf fans when he was hired back in 2008. Praised for his work in Anaheim which resulted in the Ducks' 2007 Stanley Cup win, Burke was far from successful in his time in Toronto. The Leafs never finished better than fourth in their division and missed the playoffs every year under Burke. MLSE's change in ownership is likely a large factor for the move, but if it was any other GM, Leaf fans would've been calling for his head years ago. I imagine Burke's time in Toronto will be defined by the 2009 trade he made with the division rival Bruins, a deal that sent two first-round picks and a second rounder to Boston in exchange for sniper Phil Kessel. The Leafs needed scoring, and Kessel has mostly provided that. However, no GM of a rebuilding team in their right mind would trade high draft picks to a rival for a one-dimensional player like Kessel. And sure, its unfair to use hindsight and gauge the deal with the players that Boston drafted with the Leafs' picks, but you can be certain that Toronto would deal Kessel back to the Bruins for Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton in a heartbeat. Toronto has missed the playoffs every year since the deal and won't threaten to make the postseason this year, while Boston has made the playoffs every year since the deal and have won a Cup. Enough said.
5. "Compliance buyouts" taking effect earlier than anticipated
After reports that the Canadiens were going to sit Scott Gomez out for the entire season to avoid injury and ensuring a buyout of his contract starting next season, the NHL altered their newly agreed-upon compliance buyout plan. In the new CBA, teams were to be allowed two buyouts-- similar to the NBA's amnesty clause-- that were to take place in the 2013 and/or 2014 offseasons. The league accelerated this process in the wake of the Gomez news, apparently trying to avoid setting a bad precedent. Therefore the Habs will be able to buy out the underperforming and overpaid Gomez's contract this season, allowing his contract to come off the books at the start of the next offseason. The Rangers followed suit and placed Wade Redden on waivers, and now that both players have cleared waivers the teams can officially buy them out. It makes sense that the NHL and NHLPA agreed on this acceleration of the compliance buyouts as it means teams won't have to wait through the shortened season to reap some of the benefits of the new CBA.
6. Edmonton's expectations have changed drastically since last season
The Oilers come into the season as one of the most compelling teams due the the abundance of young talent on their roster. The Oilers have picked first overall in three straight drafts, but it will be a major disappointment if they end up in the same position at season's end. Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov are what the Oilers have to show for three dismal seasons, and with other youngsters like Jordan Eberle and Magnus Päjäärvi up front, the Oilers are on the brink of an offensive explosion. Possibly the most intriguing young player in Edmonton is Justin Schultz. Schultz became a free agent after he de-registered from the University of Wisconsin in May and was not signed by the Ducks, who drafted him in 2008, before a 30-day exclusive window expired. Essentially he had 29 NHL teams vying for his services at that point, and the young defenseman chose Edmonton. Schultz tore up the AHL during the lockout, scoring 48 points in 34 games with Oklahoma City. That's insane for a blueliner, and if that production translates to his NHL game, Schultz will be a key piece in the Oilers' promising future.
7. If reports that Sidney Crosby is in the best shape of his life are true, the rest of the league should be scared
It's hard to watch NHL-crazy TSN these days without hearing the speculation that Sidney Crosby is in the best shape of his life. It doesn't seem too far-fetched to me if this were the case; Crosby's last season without missing significant time was 2009-10, and if last season was any indication, Crosby is able to stay in ridiculous game shape without actually playing for extended periods of time. Last season Crosby played in 28 games including the playoffs, putting up a lofty 45 points. This time, Crosby isn't coming back from an injury, it was just the lockout that kept him off the ice, which means he has had time to focus solely on those Navy Seal-esque training regimens depicted on his Reebok commercials. I will be shocked if Crosby isn't neck-and-neck with Steven Stamkos and teammate Evgeni Malkin for the Hart and Art Ross trophies at year's end, if not the runaway winner of both.
8. The LA Kings will be back in the Cup hunt this season
The Kings shocked the hockey world with their unlikely Stanley Cup win, running the table as the 8 seed. What was most surprising was how easy it was for them; the Kings lost just four games in the playoffs and outscored their opponents 57-30. The team showed instant improvement after the February 24 Jeff Carter trade, going 12-5-3 to finish the regular season. Slava Voynov filled the void left by Jack Johnson and should continue to improve with more games under his belt. Star goaltender Jonathan Quick was a huge factor in the Kings' cup run, and they rewarded him this offseason with a 10 year deal worth $58 million. The Conn Smythe winner is now the third King with a 10-plus-year deal, including Carter and Mike Richards. Captain Dustin Brown is coming of his fifth-straight 50+ point season, and Anze Kopitar, their most talented skater, has 70+ points in four of his first six NHL seasons, including the past three. I expect the Kings to improve on their eighth place finish from last season and contend for the Pacific division crown.
9. First-year coaches will have their work cut out for them
Four teams named new coaches this offseason, and while any team's ultimate goal is to win the Cup, these coaches will face somewhat differing challenges. Bob Hartley returns to the NHL head coaching ranks after being fired by the Thrashers in 2007. Hartley has a .579 win percentage in over 650 games, and led Colorado to their Cup win in 2001. The Flames are an ageing team in a division that features the defending Presidents trophy winners in Vancouver, a young über-talented team in Edmonton and an influx of talent in Minnesota. Ralph Krueger takes control of the Oilers bench after two season as an assistant under Tom Renney. Krueger has no NHL experience as a head coach but has lengthy international experience with the Swiss national team. The Oilers shouldn't have much trouble scoring, meaning Krueger's toughest task will be teaching team defense to his squad of offensively gifted youngsters. Michel Terrien returns to Montreal as head coach of the Canadiens having coached them for just over two full seasons worth of games in early 2000s. In what is arguably the toughest job in the NHL, Terrien went 77-77-37 last time around, failing to make the playoffs. Adam Oates had a great offseason, as he was hired by the Capitals on the same day he was elected to the Hall of Fame. Oates takes over after the not-completely-failed-but-ultimately-a-bad-fit Dale Hunter experiment, and will try to bring back the offensive juggernaut that was Ovechkin and company. Oates familiarity with the D.C. area and his success as an offensive assistant with Stamkos in Tampa leads me to believe he will succeed with the Caps' bench boss. Washington fans have had enough regular season domination and are hungry for a deep playoff run.
10. Predicted division standings (Playoff teams*)
ATLANTIC
1. Pittsburgh*
2. NY Rangers*
3. New Jersey*
4. Philadelphia*
5. NY Islanders
NORTHEAST
1. Boston*
2. Buffalo
3. Ottawa
4. Toronto
5. Montreal
SOUTHEAST
1. Washington*
2. Florida*
3. Carolina*
4. Tampa Bay
5. Winnipeg
CENTRAL
1. St. Louis*
2. Chicago*
3. Detroit*
4. Nashville*
5. Columbus
NORTHWEST
1. Vancouver*
2. Minnesota*
3. Edmonton
4. Colorado
5. Calgary
PACIFIC
1. Los Angeles*
2. San Jose*
3. Dallas
4. Phoenix
5. Anaheim
1. Shortened season will favour rivalry games, leave out inter-conference matchups
Much like this year, the NHL salvaged a 48-game season after the 1994-95 lockout. The difference between now and then is that there are 4 more teams in the league, meaning no time for out-of-conference games and leaving teams to play two of their division rivals 5 times and the other two division teams 4 times. That means teams will play within their division in roughy 38% of their games. In a normal 82-game NHL season, teams play 24 division games which works out to 29% of their schedule. Will this have a significant effect on this season's standings?
2. Expect strong teams in weaker divisions to dominate regular season standings
This might seem a tad obvious as it happens to a certain degree every season, but I expect teams like Boston and Vancouver to shoot to the top of their respective conference standings faster than usual. Vancouver was the only playoff team in the Northwest division in 2011-12, and the only team with over 90 points in the regular season (Calgary had exactly 90, the lowest total for teams finishing second in their division). While I expect Edmonton and Minnesota to improve their records I still think the Canucks are far and away the best team in the division. Likewise, Boston will likely benefit from playing a large portion of their season against the likes of the Canadiens and Maple Leafs, two young teams who I expect will be among the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Using the same logic, weak teams in stronger divisions will suffer through worse-than-usual seasons. The Blue Jackets and the Islanders were the only teams in their respective divisions to miss the playoffs last season, and with the shortened schedule it will seem like these teams will be getting crushed by their strong division rivals every other night.
3. NHL fans are smitten with Gary Bettman after the league's official apology
The NHL issued this newspaper apology yesterday, little more than a week after Gary Bettman's heartfelt speech apologizing to fans, players and employees of the league. I understand the PR reasons behind these apologies but as a fan they are useless; all we want is to be able to watch the game, and these words will become moot in ten years when we have another labour dispute anyway. There is one line from today's newspaper ad that I would love to see taken to heart: "From today forward, we will do everything we can to make this season worth the wait." One thing that comes to mind is free access to NHL Gamecenter, the online subscription service that allows fans to watch out-of-market games on their computer, phone, tablet and/or gaming system. While that seemed like a pie-in-the-sky idea, the NHL has lowered the price to $49.99 for the season, which if you were to only watch your favourite team's games would work out to just $1.04 per game. I still think they should've gone farther with this discount, but with stringent television contracts and lost revenue from the lockout, there was no way they could offer it for free.
4. Brian Burke's firing was oddly timed but completely understandable
 |
| Burke was fired January 9 |
Brian Burke was seen as a saviour by many Leaf fans when he was hired back in 2008. Praised for his work in Anaheim which resulted in the Ducks' 2007 Stanley Cup win, Burke was far from successful in his time in Toronto. The Leafs never finished better than fourth in their division and missed the playoffs every year under Burke. MLSE's change in ownership is likely a large factor for the move, but if it was any other GM, Leaf fans would've been calling for his head years ago. I imagine Burke's time in Toronto will be defined by the 2009 trade he made with the division rival Bruins, a deal that sent two first-round picks and a second rounder to Boston in exchange for sniper Phil Kessel. The Leafs needed scoring, and Kessel has mostly provided that. However, no GM of a rebuilding team in their right mind would trade high draft picks to a rival for a one-dimensional player like Kessel. And sure, its unfair to use hindsight and gauge the deal with the players that Boston drafted with the Leafs' picks, but you can be certain that Toronto would deal Kessel back to the Bruins for Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton in a heartbeat. Toronto has missed the playoffs every year since the deal and won't threaten to make the postseason this year, while Boston has made the playoffs every year since the deal and have won a Cup. Enough said.
5. "Compliance buyouts" taking effect earlier than anticipated
After reports that the Canadiens were going to sit Scott Gomez out for the entire season to avoid injury and ensuring a buyout of his contract starting next season, the NHL altered their newly agreed-upon compliance buyout plan. In the new CBA, teams were to be allowed two buyouts-- similar to the NBA's amnesty clause-- that were to take place in the 2013 and/or 2014 offseasons. The league accelerated this process in the wake of the Gomez news, apparently trying to avoid setting a bad precedent. Therefore the Habs will be able to buy out the underperforming and overpaid Gomez's contract this season, allowing his contract to come off the books at the start of the next offseason. The Rangers followed suit and placed Wade Redden on waivers, and now that both players have cleared waivers the teams can officially buy them out. It makes sense that the NHL and NHLPA agreed on this acceleration of the compliance buyouts as it means teams won't have to wait through the shortened season to reap some of the benefits of the new CBA.
6. Edmonton's expectations have changed drastically since last season
The Oilers come into the season as one of the most compelling teams due the the abundance of young talent on their roster. The Oilers have picked first overall in three straight drafts, but it will be a major disappointment if they end up in the same position at season's end. Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov are what the Oilers have to show for three dismal seasons, and with other youngsters like Jordan Eberle and Magnus Päjäärvi up front, the Oilers are on the brink of an offensive explosion. Possibly the most intriguing young player in Edmonton is Justin Schultz. Schultz became a free agent after he de-registered from the University of Wisconsin in May and was not signed by the Ducks, who drafted him in 2008, before a 30-day exclusive window expired. Essentially he had 29 NHL teams vying for his services at that point, and the young defenseman chose Edmonton. Schultz tore up the AHL during the lockout, scoring 48 points in 34 games with Oklahoma City. That's insane for a blueliner, and if that production translates to his NHL game, Schultz will be a key piece in the Oilers' promising future.
7. If reports that Sidney Crosby is in the best shape of his life are true, the rest of the league should be scared
 |
| Anyone else have the sudden urge to buy Reeboks and do some resistance training? |
It's hard to watch NHL-crazy TSN these days without hearing the speculation that Sidney Crosby is in the best shape of his life. It doesn't seem too far-fetched to me if this were the case; Crosby's last season without missing significant time was 2009-10, and if last season was any indication, Crosby is able to stay in ridiculous game shape without actually playing for extended periods of time. Last season Crosby played in 28 games including the playoffs, putting up a lofty 45 points. This time, Crosby isn't coming back from an injury, it was just the lockout that kept him off the ice, which means he has had time to focus solely on those Navy Seal-esque training regimens depicted on his Reebok commercials. I will be shocked if Crosby isn't neck-and-neck with Steven Stamkos and teammate Evgeni Malkin for the Hart and Art Ross trophies at year's end, if not the runaway winner of both.
8. The LA Kings will be back in the Cup hunt this season
 |
| The Kings made Quick work of their postseason opponents |
The Kings shocked the hockey world with their unlikely Stanley Cup win, running the table as the 8 seed. What was most surprising was how easy it was for them; the Kings lost just four games in the playoffs and outscored their opponents 57-30. The team showed instant improvement after the February 24 Jeff Carter trade, going 12-5-3 to finish the regular season. Slava Voynov filled the void left by Jack Johnson and should continue to improve with more games under his belt. Star goaltender Jonathan Quick was a huge factor in the Kings' cup run, and they rewarded him this offseason with a 10 year deal worth $58 million. The Conn Smythe winner is now the third King with a 10-plus-year deal, including Carter and Mike Richards. Captain Dustin Brown is coming of his fifth-straight 50+ point season, and Anze Kopitar, their most talented skater, has 70+ points in four of his first six NHL seasons, including the past three. I expect the Kings to improve on their eighth place finish from last season and contend for the Pacific division crown.
9. First-year coaches will have their work cut out for them
Four teams named new coaches this offseason, and while any team's ultimate goal is to win the Cup, these coaches will face somewhat differing challenges. Bob Hartley returns to the NHL head coaching ranks after being fired by the Thrashers in 2007. Hartley has a .579 win percentage in over 650 games, and led Colorado to their Cup win in 2001. The Flames are an ageing team in a division that features the defending Presidents trophy winners in Vancouver, a young über-talented team in Edmonton and an influx of talent in Minnesota. Ralph Krueger takes control of the Oilers bench after two season as an assistant under Tom Renney. Krueger has no NHL experience as a head coach but has lengthy international experience with the Swiss national team. The Oilers shouldn't have much trouble scoring, meaning Krueger's toughest task will be teaching team defense to his squad of offensively gifted youngsters. Michel Terrien returns to Montreal as head coach of the Canadiens having coached them for just over two full seasons worth of games in early 2000s. In what is arguably the toughest job in the NHL, Terrien went 77-77-37 last time around, failing to make the playoffs. Adam Oates had a great offseason, as he was hired by the Capitals on the same day he was elected to the Hall of Fame. Oates takes over after the not-completely-failed-but-ultimately-a-bad-fit Dale Hunter experiment, and will try to bring back the offensive juggernaut that was Ovechkin and company. Oates familiarity with the D.C. area and his success as an offensive assistant with Stamkos in Tampa leads me to believe he will succeed with the Caps' bench boss. Washington fans have had enough regular season domination and are hungry for a deep playoff run.
10. Predicted division standings (Playoff teams*)
ATLANTIC
1. Pittsburgh*
2. NY Rangers*
3. New Jersey*
4. Philadelphia*
5. NY Islanders
NORTHEAST
1. Boston*
2. Buffalo
3. Ottawa
4. Toronto
5. Montreal
SOUTHEAST
1. Washington*
2. Florida*
3. Carolina*
4. Tampa Bay
5. Winnipeg
CENTRAL
1. St. Louis*
2. Chicago*
3. Detroit*
4. Nashville*
5. Columbus
NORTHWEST
1. Vancouver*
2. Minnesota*
3. Edmonton
4. Colorado
5. Calgary
PACIFIC
1. Los Angeles*
2. San Jose*
3. Dallas
4. Phoenix
5. Anaheim
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