NBA: Western Conference Stock Report

We've hit the point in the NBA season where we can begin to read into teams' records, and decide who's a legit contender, and who's just faking it. To help weed through the current playoff landscape, rsfreshmen gives you the stock report: which teams should you buy as a contender, sell or hold onto for a couple more weeks.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Clippers (27-8; 1st Pacific) - SELL

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This is a tough one, because I really like this Clippers squad, and feel they could make some noise in the playoffs. I'm really only selling them because I think the Thunder will end up as the top-seed (and, yes... I know the Thunder just lost to the Wizards...).

Honestly, there really is a lot to like about this team. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the league, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan form the most athletic duo of bigs in the game, and they have the deepest bench going. Again, I just think the Thunder will end up as the first seed.

There are a couple red flags for the Clips too. Paul has been playing a ton of minutes and—because his body kind of fell apart late last season—LA might want to consider resting him a bit. Also, although the bench is a strength, it'll be hard to give all of the guys on the squad meaningful minutes since there are so many quality players riding the pine. A deep bench is definitely a good problem to have, but I can totally see coach Vinny Del Negro mucking up the rotation a couple times.

Buy the Clippers as a strong playoff team. But sell them as the top-seed. I think that spot goes to...

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (26-8; 1st Northwest) - BUY

Remember when fans and pundits were worried that, by trading James Harden before the season, the Thunder were handing over the Western Conference crown to the Lakers? How hilarious does that seem know?

The Thunder—even without Harden—are the best team in the league. They pace the league in terms of offensive efficiency, while allowing opponents to shoot only 42.9% from the floor, good for second-best in the NBA. In fact, go look up just about any team statistic, and you'll find the Thunder resting comfortably in the upper-half. Go ahead, check the stats... I'll wait...

See? OKC is awesome (ok... so they are below the league average in offensive-rebounds-per-game...). They score and defend with the best of them, while rebounding and passing at an above-average rate. Seems like a successful blueprint for a team to me.

Buy the Thunder.

3. San Antonio Spurs (27-10; 1st Southwest) - BUY

Oh, it's just the Spurs being the Spurs. People forgot about them pre-season as the Lakers loaded up on All-Stars and the Thunder returned as Western Conference Champs. And yet here San Antonio is, fighting for home-court advantage... again.

Like the Thunder and Clippers, the Spurs do everything really well. From efficiency statistics to field goal percentages, the Spurs routinely rank among the best in the league in just about every measurable area. Tim Duncan is playing like its 2003 again, the bench is ridiculously deep and the Spurs are rolling.

There's way too much talent here to not buy the Spurs.

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4. Memphis Grizzlies (22-10; 2nd Southwest) - SELL/ HOLD

The Grizzlies just don't score well enough. They defend, they rebound and they pass with the best of them... but they just can't score.

The big question going forward for Memphis is what to do with Rudy Gay. Yes, Gay is the Grizzlies' highest per-game scorer, but he also shoots a poor 41.2% from the floor and consistently throws up ill-advised shots. I still think that Zach Randolph should be the focus of this team offensively, but Gay gets a lot of looks, and ends up taking most of the crunch-time shots.

Trade rumors have been circulating Gay and the Grizzlies for the last couple seasons. I'm not going to lean either way in terms of what they should do with him, but let's just say they sure could use a pure shooter or two...

Either way, I don't think it's fair to fully rule on the Grizzlies until the Rudy Gay situation gets figured out. They'll most certainly end up in the playoffs, but I just can't give a definitive opinion on the team until their personality shakes out.

Hold for now, but be a little worried... they don't score well enough.

5. Golden State (22-11; 2nd Pacific) - BUY/ HOLD

For my money, Golden State has got to be the biggest surprise of the 2012-13 NBA Season. I think they have enough to keep it going. But I'm not 100% sure.

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This team has been quietly superb all year. They are a top-10 team both in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. How many other teams can make that claim? That would be 3: Oklahoma City, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers. Talk about keeping good company.

They should be able to keep up their current pace offensively too. Stephen Curry is perhaps the games best pure jump-shooter and David Lee is a consistent 20-point, 10-rebound guy. Add to that a 3-point specialist (Klay Thompson), a promising rookie (Harrison Barnes), a tough big-man who comes off the bench (Carl Landry) and perhaps the most underrated off-season acquisition in the league (Jarrett Jack), and it's easy to see this team in the playoffs.

The big question, though, is the defense. They've surprised everyone with how well they've played this season, and yet something tells me they'll regress and begin to resemble the Warriors of last year (a squad that finished in the bottom 4 in defensive efficiency). I have no numerical reason to doubt the Warriors, by the way. But if you're a Warriors fan, be a little guarded about the stellar D.

I'm holding stock for a couple weeks. If the defense holds up, I'm all in on the Warriors (to fight for home-court in round 1 at least).

6. Houston Rockets (20-14; 3rd Southwest) - SELL

Houston has won 8 of their last 10 games, and yet I'm still selling these guys. They're fun, and have some nice pieces in place, but their current record is a bit of a mirage.

"Mirage" sounds a little harsh you think? Well check this out: the Rockets have dominated the weak Eastern conference this year, playing the East to a 14-2 record. While that's fantastic, it also means they've played Western Conference opponents to a 6-12 record, something that just has to come back to bite them. See? That's mirage territory.

The rest of January could be particularly tough for the Rockets. Of their 14 remaining January games, 10 are on the road, and 9 are against Western Conference opponents. Although they get New Orleans twice in that stretch, I fully expect them to slip a bit in the standings.

Sell the Rockets.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (19-15; 2nd Northwest) - SELL

Portland is blazin' hot right now (... get it??), but I don't think they'll end up making a ton of noise by the time we hit April. Damian Lillard is the front-runner for the Rookie of the Year title, and I really like Nicolas Batum, but there isn't enough in Portland to make a real run.

The problem is defense. Lillard is a great pick-and-roll point guard, but boy is he an awful defender. Same story for LaMarcus Aldridge, a finesse power forward with a nice offensive game, but who couldn't get a crunch time stop if his life depended on it. The D has been holding up recently, but it will surely disappear soon.

Sell the Blazers.

8. Denver Nuggets (20-16; 3rd Northwest) - BUY

At the beginning of the season, Denver was considered by some as a darkhorse threat for one of the top seeds in the West. While I wouldn't advise you to buy them as a front-line team, I do think they're a safe bet to at least make the playoffs. And maybe even be favored in a playoff series.

One word sums up the Nuggets: speed. They play at a really fast pace, and—especially at home, with the altitude advantage—try to run their opponents out of the gym. Kenneth Faried is the best hustle-player in the league (just watching him makes me tired...), and Denver tries to stick to this gameplan as much as possible.

They've got some really good pieces for that fast-paced system (athletic bigs like JaVale McGee; slashers like Andre Iguodala; an aggressive point guard in Ty Lawson) but lack a couple sure-fire jump shooters. I imagine they'll be thrown into a ton of trade scenarios in the next couple months, and if they can pick up a shooter, they'll be a force.

Buy the Nuggets—I'd be amazed if they didn't make the playoffs.