Minnesota @ Green Bay - Saturday, January 5th 8:00 PM
Saturday night's NFC North matchup pits two teams that are all too familiar with each other. This game will mark the third time in six weeks that the Packers and Vikings will square off, and could very well be the most even matchup of the entire Wildcard round.
It was exactly one month ago when the Packers defeated their division foes at Lambeau in Week 13. Only two players really stood out in that contest: Adrian Peterson, who has been exceptional all year, and Packers' safety Morgan Burnett. Burnett picked off Christian Ponder twice in the red zone in the 2nd half, both turnovers leading to Green Bay field goals. Peterson rushed for 210 yards, including an 82-yd TD, making Peterson's effort the fifth-most rushing yards by a player on a losing team in the Super Bowl era.
While we can expect AP to put up more beastly numbers, I wouldn't count on Ponder to throw the game away like he did in December. Ponder has thrown just one pick since those two at Lambeau, and it came in the Vikings' next game against Chicago, a defence who led the league in INTs and overall takeaways. And if regular season stats are any indication, Minnesota should go to the ground early and often. The Vikes ranked 2nd in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. This fits well with the conventional wisdom when facing an elite QB; keeping it on the ground will limit how much time Aaron Rodgers and his O has the ball.
Speaking of Rodgers, of the six starting QBs in the NFC this postseason, he is the only one with a playoff win under his belt. He has also never won a playoff game at Lambeau, however. To be clear, he's only played at home once (2010 Wildcard loss to the Giants), and in the Packers' Super Bowl run the previous season they never had home-field advantage. Green Bay's last home playoff win was in 2007, but that was in the final months of the Brett Favre era.
With Charles Woodson returning, the Packers' D will be improved but not enough to stop AP from going off for another big game. Green Bay's passing attack will find success, especially if Minnesota's best corner, Antoine Winfield, is still ailing from his broken hand. Rodgers torched the Vikes' D after Winfield left the game last week, and will continue to do so if he's not close to 100%.
The Call: Green Bay wins 24-20
Seattle @ Washington - Sunday, January 6th 4:30 PM
You can't start a piece on this matchup without mentioning the two stellar rookie QBs that will face off in this one. RGIII revitalized a city and a franchise, leading his 'Skins to their first division crown since 1999. Russell Wilson beat out Matt Flynn for the starting job this preseason and has rarely looked like a rookie. This game will likely draw the most interest from the casual fan on Wildcard weekend, as NFL headlines this year have largely been dominated by the exploits of rookie QBs.
It comes as somewhat of a surprise (to me, at least) that the Seahawks are 3-point favourites in this one. If this game was in Seattle, clearly the upper hand would lie with the Seahawks. If the game was at a neutral site, like Seattle's drubbing of the Bills in Toronto, again I'd give the nod to the Seahawks. But this one's in D.C., and Seattle has been less than average on the road this year. Strictly speaking, the Seahawks went 3-5 on the road, but not all road records are created equal.
Out of the 8 teams Seattle visited this season, only one is a playoff team. The Seahawks' first three road losses were against division opponents, all one-score games. Seattle's other road efforts included an unimpressive Week 5 win in Carolina, a Week 8 loss against the Lions, a Week 12 loss to the Dolphins after a bye week, and an amazing come-from-behind win against the Bears in OT. If you'd like, we can count the Bills "home" game in Toronto as a road win for the Seahawks, but the indoor setting of the Rogers Centre pales in comparison to Ralph Wilson Stadium in mid-December.
That being said, Seattle clearly has the more talented team. While you could argue that the running back position is a wash (Marshawn Lynch and Alfred Morris are both studs), Russell Wilson's receiving core is vastly superior to RGIII's inconsistent wideouts. Also Seattle's defence, and especially their secondary, are leaps and bounds better than DeAngelo Hall and company. The Redskins have the statistically better run defence, which may just be a bi-product of their 30th ranked pass defence.
The key to this matchup may well be the health of RGIII. It was downright scary watching him last week against the Cowboys, and if his ability to run is limited I see Seattle keying on Morris and forcing Griffin to throw the ball. Washington's league-best ground attack will have to find success early and often to minimize the Seattle secondary's mammoth advantage over the 'Skins receivers. That would also limit the amount of time Russell Wilson has to pick apart a weak Washington pass defence.
The Call: Seattle wins 31-24
Saturday night's NFC North matchup pits two teams that are all too familiar with each other. This game will mark the third time in six weeks that the Packers and Vikings will square off, and could very well be the most even matchup of the entire Wildcard round.
It was exactly one month ago when the Packers defeated their division foes at Lambeau in Week 13. Only two players really stood out in that contest: Adrian Peterson, who has been exceptional all year, and Packers' safety Morgan Burnett. Burnett picked off Christian Ponder twice in the red zone in the 2nd half, both turnovers leading to Green Bay field goals. Peterson rushed for 210 yards, including an 82-yd TD, making Peterson's effort the fifth-most rushing yards by a player on a losing team in the Super Bowl era.While we can expect AP to put up more beastly numbers, I wouldn't count on Ponder to throw the game away like he did in December. Ponder has thrown just one pick since those two at Lambeau, and it came in the Vikings' next game against Chicago, a defence who led the league in INTs and overall takeaways. And if regular season stats are any indication, Minnesota should go to the ground early and often. The Vikes ranked 2nd in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. This fits well with the conventional wisdom when facing an elite QB; keeping it on the ground will limit how much time Aaron Rodgers and his O has the ball.
Speaking of Rodgers, of the six starting QBs in the NFC this postseason, he is the only one with a playoff win under his belt. He has also never won a playoff game at Lambeau, however. To be clear, he's only played at home once (2010 Wildcard loss to the Giants), and in the Packers' Super Bowl run the previous season they never had home-field advantage. Green Bay's last home playoff win was in 2007, but that was in the final months of the Brett Favre era.
With Charles Woodson returning, the Packers' D will be improved but not enough to stop AP from going off for another big game. Green Bay's passing attack will find success, especially if Minnesota's best corner, Antoine Winfield, is still ailing from his broken hand. Rodgers torched the Vikes' D after Winfield left the game last week, and will continue to do so if he's not close to 100%.
The Call: Green Bay wins 24-20
Seattle @ Washington - Sunday, January 6th 4:30 PM
You can't start a piece on this matchup without mentioning the two stellar rookie QBs that will face off in this one. RGIII revitalized a city and a franchise, leading his 'Skins to their first division crown since 1999. Russell Wilson beat out Matt Flynn for the starting job this preseason and has rarely looked like a rookie. This game will likely draw the most interest from the casual fan on Wildcard weekend, as NFL headlines this year have largely been dominated by the exploits of rookie QBs.
It comes as somewhat of a surprise (to me, at least) that the Seahawks are 3-point favourites in this one. If this game was in Seattle, clearly the upper hand would lie with the Seahawks. If the game was at a neutral site, like Seattle's drubbing of the Bills in Toronto, again I'd give the nod to the Seahawks. But this one's in D.C., and Seattle has been less than average on the road this year. Strictly speaking, the Seahawks went 3-5 on the road, but not all road records are created equal.
Out of the 8 teams Seattle visited this season, only one is a playoff team. The Seahawks' first three road losses were against division opponents, all one-score games. Seattle's other road efforts included an unimpressive Week 5 win in Carolina, a Week 8 loss against the Lions, a Week 12 loss to the Dolphins after a bye week, and an amazing come-from-behind win against the Bears in OT. If you'd like, we can count the Bills "home" game in Toronto as a road win for the Seahawks, but the indoor setting of the Rogers Centre pales in comparison to Ralph Wilson Stadium in mid-December.
That being said, Seattle clearly has the more talented team. While you could argue that the running back position is a wash (Marshawn Lynch and Alfred Morris are both studs), Russell Wilson's receiving core is vastly superior to RGIII's inconsistent wideouts. Also Seattle's defence, and especially their secondary, are leaps and bounds better than DeAngelo Hall and company. The Redskins have the statistically better run defence, which may just be a bi-product of their 30th ranked pass defence.
The key to this matchup may well be the health of RGIII. It was downright scary watching him last week against the Cowboys, and if his ability to run is limited I see Seattle keying on Morris and forcing Griffin to throw the ball. Washington's league-best ground attack will have to find success early and often to minimize the Seattle secondary's mammoth advantage over the 'Skins receivers. That would also limit the amount of time Russell Wilson has to pick apart a weak Washington pass defence.
The Call: Seattle wins 31-24
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