Week 3 Forecaster

Texans DE/OLB Mario WIlliams

Of all the 2-0 teams, the Houston Texans have to be the most over-hyped. Sure, they will probably win their division. But keep in mind half of the AFC South (the Peyton-less Colts, and the Luke McCown led Jags) have looked like NCAA I-AA teams at times.

The Texans are 2-0 with wins at home against the above mentioned Colts, and on the road in Miami. While I suppose the old adage “you can only beat who's on your schedule” applies, these were two remarkably easy games, with the Colts severely struggling, and the Dolphins having lost 11 of their last 12 home games. Despite going up against two stalling offences, some pundits seem to have bought in. Clark Judge of cbssports.com suggests that you “gotta believe” in their D, while his colleague Pete Prisco has the Texans 4 in his power rankings, also noting the defense as a strength.

I'm not fully sold on this Texans team, though. Sunday's game in New Orleans should be the first real test of Houston's D. Let's hold off on proclaiming them a reincarnation of the '85 Bears until then.

Last week we were 3-1-1 against the spread. Here are the picks for week 3.

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

I make this pick for a few reasons: (a) the Texans defense still hasn't proven they can hold up against an elite offense; (b) the Texans O-line struggled last week against the 'Phins, while the Saints sacked Cutler 6 times; (c) the Saints are very good at home in the Drew Brees era. While the Saints won't be as dominating on D as they were against the Bears, they should pressure Schaub enough to be the difference. Pick New Orleans.

New England Patriots (-9) @ Buffalo Bills

I like this Bills team. And sure, they're probably tired of being treated like the little brothers of the AFC East. But the Patriots simply have their number (6-0-1 in their last 7 ATS in Buffalo). While the Bills will be able to move the ball through the air on the shaky New England secondary, they won't be able to match points all game long. Eventually the Pats get out to a two-touchdown lead, and never look back.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-14 1/2)

Normally, I stay away from spreads this big. Cheap touchdowns happen far too often at the end of games, and those scores can be the difference between covering and not. However, the Chiefs are a terrible team. Going on the road to face a Chargers team that should be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss in New England will prove to be a nightmare for the Chiefs. With no offensive weapons, and facing a top quarterback in Phillip Rivers, expect the Chiefs to get blown out by 3+ touchdowns.

Atlanta (+1) @ Tampa Bay

Atlanta rebounded last week in an important game against Mike Vick and the Eagles. Some have said the Falcons only won because Vick went down with a concussion, however, his replacement Mike Kafka played perfectly fine. Matty Ice was the real story in this one, leading his team to victory with a fourth quarter comeback. Look for Atlanta to build on this win with another one in Tampa Bay against their division foes. While the Buccaneers narrowly beat the Vikings last week, don't expect a repeat performance against a much more talented team.

Pittsburgh (-10 1/2) @ Indianapolis

Football is often thought of as the ultimate team sport. Apparently, this doesn't apply to the Colts. With Peyton Manning in the lineup, the Colts are a 10-win team. Without him, as we have seen, they stink. All of a sudden it becomes apparent that the Colts D is built to play with the lead, and that the offense is built for Manning to run. I don't see Indy putting up more than 14 points—max—against the tough Steelers D. And since they won't be playing much of the game with the lead, the Colts defense should struggle as well. Pick the Steelers here.